South Carolina has traditionally played the role of kingmaker in
Republican presidential primaries. However, in a year in which
momentum has been weak and no contender has won two contests in a
row, that appears not to be the case this time around. Instead,
eyes are now on Florida to see whether that state offers clues as
to the path to the nomination. Top contenders are going all out to
capture the state’s 57 winner-take-all delegates on January 29.
Rudy Giuliani’s description of Florida as a “microcosm” of the
country is not mere flattery. A substantial block of social
conservatives, a large Hispanic population, former northeasterners
and Midwesterners, and the often decisive I-4 corridor voters make
for a broad cross section of Republicans.
Unlike New Hampshire and Michigan, Florida does not allow
Independents to vote in the GOP primary, so Florida will be a true
test of which candidate can appeal to the spectrum of his Party’s
voters.
Immigration, which has been a top issue throughout the primaries
and a source of conflict, may be discussed in more muted tones as
the candidates jockey for favor among key Hispanic voters. Mitt
Romney and Rudy Giuliani have both begun running Spanish language
ads.
The economy will be a top concern. Giuliani has already begun to
attack McCain’s prior votes against the Bush tax cuts and to
compare his record of tax cuts and economic growth to that of
former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. McCain has launched an
attack on Romney, pointing to low job growth and increases of at
least $500M in “fees” during Romney’s tenure.
Local Florida issues will also come to the fore. Catastrophic
property insurance is a key concern in the hurricane ravaged state.
Giuliani has come out in favor of a national fund. McCain has said
he opposes federal intervention in this area. Expect the candidates
to aim their fire at Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro in order to
bolster their appeal with Florida’s Hispanic, mostly Cuban
voters.
Who has the upper hand in the Sunshine state?
PRE-SOUTH CAROLINA polling showed McCain with a narrow lead over
his rivals in Florida in the RealClearpolitics.com averages. In
polling since South Carolina, Survey USA gives McCain the edge
while Rasmussen shows Romney ahead.
Even his rivals concede that McCain will enjoy the benefits of a
“bump” from a hard fought win. University of Virginia political
scientist Larry J. Sabato explains that momentum has not been
absent, just weak this year. He says, “There has always been
momentum this year. But either it wasn’t enough to win the next
contest, or it faded before the next vote. There will again be
momentum for McCain.” However, it is far from clear that this alone
will be enough to secure Florida.
Without Independents’ support McCain must improve his standing
among Republicans if he is to win in Florida. Recognizing the task
before him to unite conservatives McCain’s South Carolina victory
speech stressed conservative themes — a resolute defense, fiscal
discipline, the rule of law and traditional values.
If McCain is to build on his success in South Carolina he will
need to overcome the base’s concerns about his past opposition to
the Bush tax cuts and his support for comprehensive immigration
reform. While the latter may be less of a liability in Florida,
McCain’s tax record will clearly be a focus of his rivals’
attacks.
McCain will face a considerable challenge in Rudy Giuliani,
whose unconventional strategy of essentially avoiding the early
contests could be pay off. Despite barely registering in the early
states, Giuliani remains well positioned to re-emerge in Florida.
He has been campaigning vigorously for weeks, enjoys a strong
following among transplanted northeasterners and Cuban Americans
and offers a strong fiscal and national security message — just
the type of appeal which may cut into McCain’s base of support. He
received a lift last week when Americans for Tax Reform issued a
rating sheet giving him the best marks among the GOP contenders on
tax policy.
While McCain and Giuliani face limits on their financial
resources, one opponent does not. Mitt Romney will be seeking to
win his first fully contested primary. Coming off losses in Iowa
and New Hampshire he kept his chances alive in Michigan and was
able to save some face and divert attention from an embarrassing
fourth place finish in South Carolina with a win in Nevada’s
caucus.
Romney now plays up his Washington outsider status by
emphasizing his private sector background — a timely message as
the economy drifts into a downturn. He remains a threat in Florida
where he may cobble together support from fiscal and social
conservatives who still may harbor doubts about McCain as the
party’s standard bearer. However, Romney will himself face scrutiny
about his record as Massachusetts governor and ongoing concerns
from voters that he lacks core convictions.
Mike Huckabee’s star has dimmed but he remains a formidable
contender in Florida. Corralling 41 percent of the evangelical vote
but only 14 percent of other voters in South Carolina, he failed to
show he can expand beyond his core base of support. Nevertheless in
a multi-candidate field he still may capture large numbers of votes
from social conservative value voters who are estimated to make up
25-30 percent of the primary electorate.
In contrast to the 2000 race, South Carolina did not dash
McCain’s hopes this time. However after just a few days of frenzied
campaigning in Florida it is clear that the race is far from
settled. The questions remain: Will McCain put to rest concerns
from the conservative base, and, if not, is there another candidate
who can emerge as a viable alternative heading into the Super
Tuesday bonanza of primaries?
