MANCHESTER — It wasn’t supposed to be this way.
Last Thursday in Des Moines, a weary Hillary Clinton took the
stage to concede defeat in a state that she had poured a massive
amount of money and resources into, while across town Barack Obama
delivered a rousing speech in which he declared a “defining moment
in history” — and electrified an audience of thousands.
All the signs in the next few days pointed to a changing of the
guard. Obama’s speeches drew larger and more energetic crowds in
New Hampshire, and polls predicted a possible double-digit blowout
win in the state for the freshman Senator from Illinois.
On Monday, when Clinton teared up on a stop in Portsmouth when
asked how she continued on each day, it looked like the emotional
collapse of a candidate who had been brought to the brink under the
stresses of a long campaign.
But in reality, that moment may instead have saved her
candidacy.
“It showed the human side of Hillary Clinton, the passionate
side, that Hillary Clinton is passionate about these issues,”
Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe told reporters at the
campaign’s primary night rally, just as the Associated Press
declared her the winner of a stunning victory in the state. “The
people saw the real Hillary Clinton like I see the Hillary Clinton
I’ve known for 27 years.”
As the primary results rolled in on Tuesday, they had pundits
scratching their heads, because they were so wildly off from the
polling done just days before voting. But it is important to keep
in mind that the final CNN/WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll
that had Obama with a nine-point lead, was taken on Saturday and
Sunday, and did not reflect her emotional episode that occurred the
following day.
Most noteworthy is that in the poll, Obama had a 38 percent to
34 percent lead among female voters, which was roughly the same as
the five-point advantage Obama had among that demographic in
Iowa.
But exit polls taken on Tuesday, after the
Hillary-in-tears incident, showed that Clinton won 46 percent of
the female vote to 34 percent for Obama. Considering that female
voters comprised 57 percent of the electorate in the Democratic
primary, their overwhelming support for Clinton made the
difference.
EARLIER IN the night, the mood at the gym at Southern New Hampshire
University where the Clinton campaign had scheduled its primary
night celebration felt like a funeral.
The large gym was mostly empty, and the cheers seemed forced.
The media presence wasn’t large, because most reporters were in
Nashua for the expected coronation of Obama.
But as the night went on, and Clinton’s lead held up with more
and more precincts reporting, the chants of “Hill-a-ry!” and “Let’s
Go Clinton!” grew louder and more passionate.
“We’re cautiously optimistic,” said Clinton spokesman Phil
Singer, as the campaign waited with trepidation for the results to
come in from the college towns where they feared Obama would
overtake her.
At about 10:30 p.m., the AP called the primary for Clinton, and
a roar broke out in the gym.
Before long, she appeared with Chelsea and Bill alongside her,
and echoed the spin that McAuliffe had been pumping reporters with
earlier in the evening. After a year of campaigning, and 16 years
in the public spotlight, America finally got to know the real
Hillary.
“I want especially to thank New Hampshire,” she said. “Over the
last week, I listened to you, and in the process, I found my own
voice.”
While it would be easy to read the news of another Clinton
comeback in New Hampshire and conclude that she’ll now coast to the
nomination, if we’ve learned anything in the past week, it’s that
we should never consider a candidate dead until the votes are
counted.
After beating Clinton in Iowa and coming close in New Hampshire,
Obama could still win Nevada and South Carolina, and pick up John
Edwards’s supporters once the former Senator exits the race.
But for now, I’m out of the prediction
business.
