Smart political observers may not be surprised to see a rematch
between Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi for the governorship of
Washington state after the infamous, nail-biting recounts of 2004.
What might be unexpected, however, is the fact the current race is
a real opportunity for a Republican pickup, even given the
increasingly deep blue politics of the Evergreen State.
John Kerry won Washington handily, as did Senators Patty Murray
and Maria Cantwell in recent election cycles. Democrats hold a firm
6-3 lead among members of the U.S. House and are now approaching
super-majorities in both chambers of the state’s Legislature. So
why is Rossi in strong position to threaten the Democratic
incumbent?
Rossi’s strength is rooted in his powerfully effective 2004
campaign. His direct message of reform and leadership as a remedy
to a stagnant and impotent state capital was compelling then, and
remains so today.
Also, the much-publicized antics of the King County Elections
bureaucracy in the post-Election Day counts and recounts did much
to foster long-term resentment among Republicans and
independents.
King County ended up having thousands more votes counted than it
had registered voters credited with casting ballots. After a failed
court challenge to the final election results, soundpolitics.com
blogger Stefan Sharkansky unearthed evidence from a
less-than-forthcoming King County Elections office that hundreds of
ballots — not cast by lawfully registered voters — were tallied
in election results.
That left grassroots Republicans spoiling for a fight in
2008.
BUT WHAT EXPLAINS Rossi’s strong poll numbers in this increasingly
Democratic state? Independent surveys this past Fall had Gregoire
consistently under 50 percent in hypothetical rematches with Rossi,
holding at most a five-point lead.
Gregoire’s tenure as governor has been cursed with the same
inertia and lack of decisive leadership that plagued her Democratic
predecessor, Gary Locke. On Gregoire’s watch, the state budget has
ballooned, leaving even the slightly left-of-center Seattle
Times editorial board displeased. By comparison, Rossi ran in
2004 on the strength of his bipartisan work with Locke to balance
and restrain the state budget.
Meanwhile, the state looks incapable of decisive, timely action
to replace two aging state highways in the heart of the Seattle
metropolitan area: the Alaska Way Viaduct on the Seattle waterfront
and the 520 bridge, connecting the city with its Eastside suburbs
across Lake Washington. Year after year of inaction on those
projects, and other long overdue transportation improvements in the
rapidly growing Puget Sound region are an increasing sore spot for
voters who are otherwise regularly sending Democrats to represent
them in Olympia and Washington, D.C.
Worse, the state’s major news stories continue to shine poor
light on Olympia. The state has again delayed implementation of
part of its 10th grade WASL test as a high school graduation exam
after students continued to score poorly in math and science.
Recently, an entire ferry route was rendered inoperable when the
outdated boats operating the state run were deemed unsafe and no
suitable replacements were available.
Beyond voter unease with Olympia, Republican and Democrat
observers see a general mood of uncertainty among the Washington
state populace heading into 2008. While independent voters,
especially in Seattle’s suburbs, are increasingly supportive of
Democrats in most races, discomfort with overweening government is
still high.
A statewide initiative to require a two-thirds vote of the
legislature to raise taxes was just approved in November, while a
taxing measure in the Puget Sound area to fund transit and roads
projects failed. The overwhelmingly Democratic Legislature scurried
back to Olympia for a late November special session, at the call of
the governor, to reinstate a voter-approved, statewide cap on
property tax increases after the original measure was overturned in
the courts.
ON TOP OF THIS is the general dour perception of Gregoire. She is
known more as a technocrat than a warmth-inspiring politician. In
contrast, Rossi’s 2004 success was due in large part to his
personal ability to sell himself as a credible, serious leader to
fill a void that existed even then in the state capital.
That contrast in personalities contributed to Gregoire
underperforming the rest of the Democratic ticket in 2004. Rossi’s
message of reform that resonated with many non-Republicans and
Gregoire coaxed little affection from her own Democratic base. In
the closest thing Washington has to a swing county, Snohomish, just
north of Seattle, Gregoire lost to Rossi even as voters decisively
selected Democrats for Congress and the state Legislature.
Gregoire’s enthusiasm gap among her natural allies has been
rekindled by the recent special session to enshrine voter-approved
property tax protections. While Gregoire and the Legislature were
bowing to political reality, grassroots Democrats and special
interest groups fumed.
Consequently, while Gregoire was struggling with the
not-so-inspiring affairs of state and her own restive base, Rossi
came out of the gate in October running hard on issues important to
suburban swing voters such as education and transportation. Though
many of Rossi’s fellow Washington Republicans have struggled
mightily on those topics, he is espousing a strategy similar to his
2004 run: understand the issues voters care about, apply
conservative principles to those problems in a realistic agenda,
then run with passion against the inert status quo of Olympia.
While the governor’s fundraising has been strong, Rossi’s own
collections since entering the race mere weeks ago have been
startling. As of November 30th he had already raised over $1.1
million and is likely to close much of Gregoire’s current 3 to1
cash-on-hand advantage during the required fundraising freeze for
state officials during the coming legislative session.
It all adds up to a race in a blue state where an incumbent
governor has her hands full. Latent Democratic strength in
Washington makes the challenge a difficult one, but “Governor
Rossi” in 2009 isn’t at all far-fetched.
