By George H. Wittman on 12.18.07 @ 12:07AM
But who is "Dima," the disciple whom Vladimir Putin has chosen as his successor?
Finally the mystery is over -- well, maybe nearly. The mystery,
of course, has been the future of Vladimir Putin after his term as
president of Russia ends next spring. Prevented by the Russian
constitution from an additional four years, Putin announced last
October that he would lead the candidate list of the United Russia
party in the recent elections for the lower house of the Russian
parliament.
United Russia won 64% of the parliamentary electoral vote, and
the president of Russia quickly celebrated by throwing his support
behind his 42-year-old protege from St. Petersburg, Dimitry
Medvedev, to succeed him. In turn "Dima," as his patron calls him,
announced that he would move to name Putin the next prime minister
-- a post that Putin had said in October would be "entirely
realistic."
As prime minister Putin would be in a position to continue to
oversee all important government programs while ceding to the new
"boy king" the formal role of head of state. Putin has made no
secret of the fact that he detests the nearly daily task of
greeting and playing host to visiting potentates. Medvedev would
take over that function as well as the numerous other protocol
duties domestically and internationally associated with the
presidency. The close working relationship that has existed between
the two men will continue unchanged.
Reality dictates that Putin will remain the man in Russia
counted on for the final word on contentious issues. At the same
time Medvedev would be conveniently available if excuses for
inaction or disagreement over policy were needed. At least that's
the initial take of some of Moscow's ever-quotable Kremlinologists.
In any case, no one in Russia or elsewhere will mistake who is
running the show.
A mystery remains, however, how all this will work out in
practice. The creation of what is in effect a ruling party in the
form of United Russia is now explained by Kremlin press contacts as
simply a replication of the sort of democratic political
circumstance that existed for many years in Japan, Mexico, Sweden
and even during the twenty-year reign of the Democratic Party of
FDR and Truman in the United States.
There is a serious legal problem nonetheless in the division of
responsibility between the prime minister's office and the
presidency. The Russian constitution quite clearly places the final
executive power in the hands of the president. The idea that Putin
would want to have the constitution amended in order to enhance his
prime ministerial powers seems short sighted if he wished to return
to the presidency.
While no one suggests the possibility of Medvedev reaching for
his full legal powers, that potential certainly cannot be ignored.
It is perhaps the fact that "Dima" among the several candidates to
take over the presidential chair was the one most subservient to
Putin personally -- and one with no security or military tie --
thus was the best fit as surrogate for the "real" president.
At first glance the security services may appear to have been
slighted by not having one of their own chosen to replace their
inspirational leader, V.V. Putin. But the reality may be quite
otherwise. There actually are several factions within the
siloviki pushing and pulling at any given time. Some
sector was bound to be upset that a rival security element had won
the presidency. With the young, bookish chairman of Gazprom, First
Deputy PM Dimitry Medvedev, chosen, the potential of serious
internal political conflict among the siloviki would be
defused. At the same time Vladimir Putin, himself, would have shown
his own master political touch.
Disregarding the restriction of civil rights and freedom of the
press, even though they would never admit it, the West applauds the
continuation of Putin's leadership of Russia. As much as the
Russian people enjoy the prospect of the uninterrupted nature of a
strong nachalnik, the West has a difficult time, itself,
in dealing with and understanding Russia without a strong hand in
the Kremlin. In Putin's case it definitely is a matter of "the
devil you know..."
According to most polls Putin has had the consistent support of
a majority of the electorate in Russia and an approval rating in
the seventy percentile. This has added to Putin's status among
other world leaders. As long as Putin manages to remain in his
position of authority -- no matter his title -- with the continued
astronomical approval of the Russian citizenry, he will only grow
as an international power broker. And this is a role Russia has
been seeking for itself since the days of the czars.
As it stands now, a combination of the young Dimitry Medvedev
and the still youthful Vladimir Putin, plus all that oil and gas
clout, makes Russia an increasingly formidable factor in world
affairs. The next Washington administration will certainly have its
hands full. And that's no mystery.
topics:
Vladimir Putin, Constitution, Military, Russia, Oil
