A year ago, Senator John McCain was the odds-on favorite to win
his Party’s nomination for president. He had the best and biggest
campaign staff, a sterling resume, and foreign policy expertise at
a critical time. Then he infuriated the Republican base by pushing
comprehensive immigration reform and his campaign spent itself into
the poor house, forcing huge layoffs. He’s been thought a long shot
candidate since at least July.
Everybody has been complaining about the interminably long
campaign season. However, for the Arizona senator it has a possible
upside. It has given people time to forget how angry they were at
him, and most of his rivals haven’t worn well.
McCain still has a steep climb to get to the nomination. He
remains in second in the must-win state of New Hampshire and his
standing in national polls has fallen behind flavor-of-the-month
Mike Huckabee. But if he follows these five not-so-easy steps, he
just might find his footing:
1. Ditch the generic biography ads. By now the
only people who don’t know he was a POW and has been in the Senate
for a long time are unregistered or uninterested. McCain should
instead make the connection between his biography and the tasks
that lie ahead. For starters, McCain should argue that only he can
get to the bottom of controversies like National Intelligence
Estimate confusion and figure out what our intelligence community
is up to. By connecting his background to a specific issue that
concerns not only Republicans but independents, he can use his
biography to some useful purpose. Otherwise, voters may be grateful
for his service but unclear why it matters.
2. Champion small government. The Republican
base is sick of “compassionate conservatism” and would like to go
back the stingy, not very cheery conservatism we used to appreciate
and saw ridiculed by the liberal media. Mike Huckabee has spent
enough and enacted enough nanny healthcare programs to fill a few
attack ads. Mitt Romney’s embrace of individual health insurance
mandates and the goal of universal coverage (as opposed to
universal access) suggests a fondness for the power of government
and a naivete about its ability to outperform free markets and
individual choice. McCain can run on a platform of “over my dead
body would I support this kind of nannyism.” Given Fred Thompson’s
failure to fill the “unhyphenated conservative” niche, McCain is
well positioned to make that pitch.
3. Camp out in New Hampshire. Spend every day
including Christmas between now and January 8 in New Hampshire.
Romney is tied down in Iowa as are Huckabee and Thompson. McCain
will gain nothing by diverting time and money elsewhere. New
Hampshire gave his campaign a boost in 2000 and his only chance in
2008 is a repeat of his upset victory there. At some point he will
need to make a direct appeal, straight to the camera, to New
Hampshire voters not to end his presidential hopes in the Granite
state.
4. Be a credible and respected adult on the issues of
faith and morality. McCain is well positioned to explain
why personal integrity matters but religious doctrine should not
determine public policy. Recently he has made efforts to reach out
to religious value voters and explained his belief in the Judeo
Christian foundations of the country but he has not excluded
nonbelievers from his outreach. A quieter, less sales-driven
approach on values and faith may come as a relief to voters.
5. Argue against a “check the box” approach to selecting
the nominee. If the election comes down to a check list of
how many positions he shares in common with the base, McCain likely
will not win. However, he can elevate the debate and call for a
wiser calculus in decision making: What are the greatest problems
and who can best deal with them? If that is the test, voters may
prioritize their issues and give him due consideration.
Even if he follows this advice, McCain’s limited resources make
a successful run improbable. But stranger things have happened in
this election cycle. His nomination would not be the oddest.
