The American Spectator

Political Hay

Out on a Limb

By G. Tracy Mehan, III on 11.9.07 @ 12:07AM

(Page 2 of 2)

Notwithstanding Fred Thompson's relatively strong poll numbers, a matter of apparent indifference to the panelists, he is not really in the game. McCain does appear to be regaining ground on Thompson, but he must not be in the game either -- a view I attribute to the panelists since they hardly mentioned McCain at all. In fact, Cook believes Giuliani benefited from the McCain meltdown which left the "tough guy" vote up for grabs.

Armey thinks it is too late in the day for Fred Thompson. He thought Thompson has been horrible on the Sunday talk shows, hardly the reincarnation of Ronald Reagan. His campaign is "not together." Thompson is "nowhere near working himself to death."

One guest raised the case of Jimmy Carter, who made 100 trips to Iowa and, surprisingly went on to win the nomination as a relative unknown. Is it not possible the same thing could happen to one of the lesser known candidates this time?

Charlie Cook dismissed the possibility due to the compression of the new calendar of state primary elections which means that time is flying. There is such a pressing need for large amounts of money and organization, in too short a time frame, to permit a dark horse or second-tier candidate to win this time.

Dick Gephardt noted that he made 300 trips to Iowa when he ran for president. He was using the Carter playbook, but that did not work for him. No one is in control of the primary process and no one ever will be in control, says my former Congressman from South St. Louis.

CHARLIE COOK WAS EMPHATIC that America is not a 50-50 nation. Democrats have a pronounced advantage in polls asking respondent's party affiliation which he says shows a 4-12 percent advantage for the Democrats. He also notes that the London book-makers are giving 5-1 odds that Hillary Clinton will win in November. He views it as "virtually impossible" for the Republicans to get the majority back in the Senate and just about as hard in the House. However, he still believes the Republicans have a 30-45 percent chance of winning the White House.

Gephardt believes the Democrats will pick up 5-10 seats in the House and 4-7 in the Senate.

Personally, I thought this prediction overly bullish until I saw the outcome of the November 6 primary in Virginia which decimated the GOP candidates for the state legislature in the Washington suburbs. In the 6 years I have lived in Arlington County, Virginia, I have seen the area change from Red to Blue in each election cycle. It is a dreary indicator for the GOP that my Republican Congressman, Tom Davis, a moderate even, took a pass on running for an open Senate seat, deferring to the former Democratic governor, and witnessed the defeat of his wife, an incumbent, as our state senator.

What is happening in northern Virginia, a shift in party affiliation and independent-leaning voters toward the Democratic Party, may be indicative of the nation as a whole.

According to Cook, the Democrats would have been guaranteed to win the White House had they nominated a "placebo" candidate such as former Virginia Governor Mark Warner. But even with Hillary Clinton, they may very well win with a 4-6 point margin.

Dick Armey, the token Republican on the panel, agrees that "Hillary will not stumble, will not lose. She will win the presidency."

All the panelists recognized the possibility of a third-party candidate entering the presidential race. On the right, the challenge would come from social conservatives. From the left, it would be Mayor Bloomberg of New York. The former would be a serious blow to the Republicans. The latter is unlikely to occur unless polling data persuades Bloomberg that he has a real chance of winning.

There you have it: the wisdom of the Beltway. Check back in February and November 2008 to see if Messrs. Cook, Gephardt, and Armey got it right or wrong.

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topics:
Hillary Clinton, Economics, Religion, Law, Russia, NATO, Conservatism