John McCain clearly is back in the news. Pundits tout his
“surge” and three national polls place him in second place in the
Republican race, albeit well behind Rudy Giuliani. His campaign
touts his standing in head to head matchups against Hillary Clinton
in key swing states. He faces substantial and potentially crippling
financial problems and lags behind four rivals in Iowa, but
McCain’s prospects have clearly improved.
What explains the McCain revival?
First, if time does not heal all wounds, it certainly lessens
them. Having time pass since the bloody battle over immigration
reform has worked to McCain’s benefit. Moreover, he has
acknowledged reality and repeatedly remarks that he has “heard the
American people” and now understands that border security must come
first.
Second, as Iran looms large both on the international stage and
as a campaign issue, his foreign policy expertise once again
becomes a strong selling point. If General Petraeus and the
unintentional assist from MoveOn.org captured the September
headlines on the Iraq surge, the looming menace of a nuclear Iran
seems to have captured even Democrats’ attention. Aided by Mitt
Romney’s “ask the lawyers” stumble, McCain has taken every
opportunity to remind voters he is literally battle tested and has
been involved in national security issues for 20 years.
Third, frugality is back in fashion and McCain is second to none
in the cheapskate department. Voters this week rejected a stem cell
proposition in New Jersey and a tax increase for healthcare in
Oregon. Clearly, voters think less government, rather than more, is
the way to go. McCain’s “Woodstock” debate moment converted into
ads neatly captured his twin appeal: military hero and budget
hawk.
Fourth, social conservatives and those looking to avoid a GOP
civil war may look upon McCain as the best alternative. He is no
recent convert to the pro-life cause and while he does not support
a gay marriage constitutional amendment, he may give social
conservative voters a solid alternative to the federalism of
Thompson and the “flexible” views of Romney.
Fifth, “authenticity” is in. Voters looking for an alternative
to Giuliani may conclude that Romney is after all too polished and
too conveniently and too recently in sync with the conservative
base on a list of issues.
Now it would be a mistake to underestimate the challenges McCain
faces. Most immediately, he is broke and may either have to round
up a large loan or accept public financing, neither of which will
help his electability argument. As his prospects improve, his
opponents may cite his campaign’s financial failings as evidence
that he talks a strong game but cannot manage his own (and by
implication the taxpayers’) money.
His standing in Iowa is dismal — single digits in fifth place
— which may kill off his comeback. And while New Hampshire offers
a better prospect, the independents (who now lean more Democratic
than Republican) whom he covets so dearly may well flock into the
Democratic primary, depriving him of support from those who
appreciate his views on issues that do not line up with the GOP
base, such as torture.
Finally, his adage that he would “rather win a war than win an
election” may be telling. Voters may appreciate his role in
correcting course in Iraq and yet still not embrace him in the role
of president. He lacks the executive credentials of Romney and
Giuliani and can point to little evidence that he has improved
Washington during his tenure. (It could have been worse, his
supporters will retort.)
So in the end McCain may not make it, but he is back in the
fight to the delight of his supporters and the frustration of his
foes. Classic McCain.
