There’s a new dominant party in Poland that is not automatically
going to approve the much argued-about American anti-missile base
in that country. It would appear that the future of the U.S. basing
to protect Europe from a possible Iranian missile attack shifts
from Putin’s propagandistic objections to the new reality of
Poland’s elected government.
It was a victory for old time political debating when the
televised contest between Poland’s dogmatic and vindictive prime
minister, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, squared off against the steadfastly
centrist liberal Donald Tusk, head of the opposition party, Civic
Platform. To everyone’s surprise the normally reticent Mr. Tusk
reportedly blew away his usually domineering opponent.
The clear television victory carried on to the general election.
Led by huge numbers of younger voters who detested the bumptious
Kaczynski twins who have held the offices of prime minister and
president, the Polish electorate turned out in droves to vote
against the continuation of the domination of the quixotically led
Law and Justice Party of the two brothers.
Most surprising was the shift in the conservative middle class
of Polish cities from the L&J Party to the CP. So shocked and
disappointed in the personal rebuff to his family was President
Lech Kaczynski that he withheld the traditional congratulations
that is expected from the head of state to the new head of
government.
If Tusk and his Civic Platform can arrange an effective
coalition, Poland will be moved to a more cooperative and
diplomatically balanced relation with their European Union
partners. At the same time, however, Warsaw’s new leadership is
expected to be more questioning of Washington’s plans to base a ten
anti-missile battery in Poland.
Along with a platform that included withdrawing Polish forces
from Iraq, Tusk has indicated that the only way he and his party
could approve the American basing scheme would be after far more
serious controls and advantages given to his country. This new
tough stance, however, hasn’t seemed yet to bother the White
House.
The definition of “liberal” in the character of Civic Platform
and Donald Tusk clearly carries classical liberal connotations and
not left-leaning government ownership of business and industry with
which the term is usually associated. The party’s stated desire is
to pursue energetically a privatization policy of over 1,000 state
industries, something in which the supposedly more right wing Law
and Justice Party was quite uninterested. For this reason Tusk has
received strong support from business that is looking forward to a
swift growth of the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
If they are to be taken at their word, Civic Platform wants to
take serious steps in reforming taxation by introducing a flat tax
of 15%, corporate and personal. At the same time they have urged
the adoption within five years of the euro as the national
currency. All in all the impression being given by Donald Tusk and
his senior advisors is that they intend to act as a catalyst for
private business development and investment. But here they have a
problem.
Civic Platform with 209 seats in parliament is still short of
the 231 necessary for a clear majority in the 460-member body.
Negotiations are underway with the Peasants Party and its pivotal
31 seats to join in the coalition. This is going to be a difficult
task because the normally leftist PP will drive a hard bargain when
it comes to cutting federal subsidies and other state-supported
instruments.
Under the new national leadership there can be expected little
change in Warsaw’s attitude toward Moscow. Unless there is a
dramatic shift by Putin, being held hostage by Russia’s energy
supply dominance will result only in Tusk’s leadership remaining
firmly in an unbending attitude.
Donald Tusk’s good English language skills and
non-confrontational personal manner will be a pleasant change from
the limited ability, or indeed willingness, to communicate which
has marked the Kaczynski twins political style with the EU. This
should be greeted with applause by the Germans who believed,
perhaps rightly, that they have been ill treated by the brothers
who appeared committed to reliving Germany’s World War II crushing
occupation of Poland.
The assertiveness of which the Kaczynskis have made such
political capital will not be necessarily absent from the new
government, according to most European commentators. Nonetheless,
Civic Platform as a party is quite divided on many issues. In
addition to needing votes outside of its own party members to pass
legislation, PM Tusk may be expected to have difficulty keeping his
own members in line.
The bottom line for Washington will be that Poland will continue
to be a loyal member of the European community of nations while
remaining characteristically committed to its own full sovereignty.
In the same manner Warsaw’s pro-American instincts and tradition
will be tempered by its own self-interest. Poles never have enjoyed
being anyone’s vassal, nor even being perceived as such. Certainly
they will not begin now.
