Are the Russians trying to scare us? Are they really that
stupid? Or are they just trying to take advantage of our domestic
politics and international anti-Americanism?
Let’s see if we can get this straight: Russia repeats nearly
weekly in one form or another that they are upset because the Poles
will allow us to base approximately ten anti-missile batteries in
their country and the Czechs will play host to a dedicated system
of radar aimed at Iran. The Russian nuclear arsenal easily could
overwhelm these puny anti-missile defenses even if the dastardly
Americans secretly had them aimed against Russia. They know this,
and that we know that they know…
Next the Russians have pulled together their entire
operationally capable force of strategic bombers — fourteen 1950s
era turboprop-driven Tupolev-95’s (aka “Bear”) and are rushing them
to and fro in the U.S. and UK airspace like a bunch of street
toughs taunting the police. Big mistake. These cops are all heavily
armed with the latest modern weapons and are quite combat ready and
experienced — which the Russians certainly are not. They know
that, and we know that they know….
Just last week the Russians threatened through their
state-controlled gas giant, Gasprom, to take “serious action”
against Ukraine by cutting off its gas supplies if the $1.3 billion
debt the company is owed isn’t paid. That this closure of the
Ukrainian leg of the Russian gas pipeline will also seriously
injure other countries in Western Europe is supposed to be an
action the Russian “petro-gauleiters” are willing to take to punish
the new pro-western Ukrainian government. Then in three days the
crisis is called off and the European markets can breathe again.
Some Russian “insiders” made a not so small bundle on that one.
They know that we know that they know…
The Russians supported by the ever-righteous Chinese are
adamantly against increasing sanctions on the Iranians and their
dash to obtain their own nuclear weapon capability. It makes Moscow
look like the protectors of the little guy. They know full well
that there is not a chance in the world that even a Hillary-led
White House will ever allow the Iranian mullahs to have a single
nuke? Of course they do, and they know that we know they
know…
So where does all this Russian posturing get them? First, it
makes their electorate feel that Vladimir Putin is very successful
— and, therefore, so is Russia. Second, it sends a signal to
countries that once were called “non-aligned” that the big bear is
back from his years of enforced hibernation. And thirdly, it’s a
serious warning to the U.S. and the West that Russia actually is
willing to risk a resumption of the political aspects of the Cold
War that placed Moscow as equal to Washington on the global
scene.
This last point is, of course, the most troublesome. For a brief
period the United States and its democratic friends around the
world came to believe that after seventy years of communist
dictatorship Russia had finally thrown off the oppression of
authoritarian government. Then came V.V.Putin, first the reformer
and then the new petro king, with all the wealth Russia’s vast oil
and gas deposits could bring.
The first chance it got, Russia exploited the regional political
shortfall that occurred as a result of the U.S deposing the bloody
dictator, Saddam Hussein, in Iraq. With the aid of the
anti-American faction in France led by Jacques Chirac, Putin
succeeded in spinning away one of America’s traditional allies in
Europe. How far that had gone was proven by the totally changed
atmosphere and swift recovery provided by the recent presidential
election of the U.S.-friendly Nicolas Sarkozy.
Putin wishes to remain in power in Russia for the indefinite
future. Floating the idea that he could continue on as Prime
Minister with enhanced power under a changed constitution has
brought considerable favorable response throughout his country. The
Russian military, however, has to be satisfied that they are not
being ignored. Perhaps Putin’s provocative posturing is to reassure
them that a restoration of Russian political/military might is in
their future as Russia’s new Czar luxuriates in the expectation of
his own long term longevity.
So, to what does it all add up? The answer may be in the
Pavlovian-trained psyche of a nation that yearns for strong central
leadership rather than the vigorous expression of democratic
representation. As long as economic and social stability is
seemingly guaranteed and the veneer of international prestige is
maintained, the Russian electorate, well organized to applaud, will
happily follow Vladimir Putin.
Tweaking the nose of Uncle Sam has become an international sport
and the Russians are not averse to playing that game. But are they
counting on us to know that’s all that is going on? Or are Putin
and the cadre of nachalniki that report to him interested
in resuming a direct challenge to the United States and its allies?
What is it that they expect us to know that they know, that we
know, that…?
