Yesterday, New Mexico Sen. Pete Domenici announced that at the
end of his current term (expiring in January 2009), he will
retire.
The announcement opens up another Republican-held Senate seat as
the 2008 election approaches — and it will generate new headaches
for Republicans, already facing the prospect of losses in the
Senate, who would no doubt have liked to run the incumbent, even
given his alleged involvement in the firing of Albuquerque U.S.
Attorney David Iglesias, for a sixth term.
It also raises the prospect of Republicans having to fight hard
to hold another seat in a distinctly purple state — something that
National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Sen. John Ensign
has been keen to avoid.
New Mexico went to President Bush in the 2004 election, but by
less than 6,000 votes. It went to the Democrat in each of the three
previous presidential elections (in 2000, to Al Gore by just 300
votes). The state has one Republican Senator (Domenici) and one
Democrat (Sen. Jeff Bingaman). Republicans hold two of the three
U.S. House seats representing the state, but Democrats hold
majorities in both the state house and senate, and, crucially, all
but one statewide office — the most important of which is the
governorship, held by Democrat Bill Richardson, currently running
for president and carrying a 64 percent approval rating, according
to September numbers from Survey USA.
Richardson’s leadership of a resurgent Democratic Party in his
own state, and across the West, will be a concern for Republicans
looking at the Senate race. While he has no plans to enter it (in
September, he called the possibility he might run “wishful
thinking”), his strong backing of former New Mexico Attorney
General Patricia Madrid last year did help the gaffe-prone Democrat
come within less than 900 votes of ousting Rep. Heather Wilson —
herself now a candidate to replace Domenici.
Wilson, for her part, enters the race with baggage (like
Domenici, her de facto mentor, she was implicated in the scandal
involving Iglesias’s sacking) but also some advantages. As her
victory over Madrid last year demonstrates, she knows how to win
tight races, and in addition, she is a formidable fundraiser (she
raised more than $4.4 million for her 2006 re-election
campaign).
However, facing Wilson could be a problem beyond a resurgent
Democratic Party led by the powerful Richardson in New Mexico and
the West, generally. Rep. Steve Pearce also appears interested in
running for Domenici’s seat, and if he does, a nasty primary
between the two representatives could ensue. Not only do rumors
abound that Wilson and Pearce personally dislike each other, but
Wilson is a confirmed moderate and member of the centrist
Republican Main Street Partnership — while Pearce is a
conservative member of the Republican Study Committee who bests her
on the Club for Growth’s 2006 congressional scorecard and its
recent RePork Card, thus creating the possibility of a Club-backed
Pearce candidacy to match Wilson’s likely RMSP-backed
candidacy.
Despite the fact that Wilson, the moderate, looks
philosophically best-placed to carry this purple state, the
conservatism of the GOP base combined with concerns about Wilson’s
possible involvement in the U.S. Attorneys scandal (and possible
Club dollars flowing to Pearce) could tip the balance against her
— meaning an even bloodier primary fight. But it also raises the
possibility that not only will Domenici’s seat lie open for the
taking by a Democrat, who could have free rein to campaign without
Republican interference as a GOP primary war wages, but so could
both Wilson’s first district, and Pearce’s second district
seats.
That, or a change of heart on Richardson’s part, would be a
dream come true for Democrats, who thus far have identified only
one candidate to run for Domenici’s seat —
environmentally-friendly property developer Don Wiviott, whose main
claim to fame is ranking among the top five fundraisers on the
liberal fundraising clearinghouse site ActBlue.com during one week
in September.
Not that Wiviott is likely to remain the frontrunner in the race
for long — speculation is already abounding that if Richardson
cannot be persuaded to enter the field, Sen. Chuck Schumer,
chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, will
approach Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, the likely second-favorite
candidate after Richardson. However, Denish seems focused on
running for governor in 2010, meaning that other candidates might
need to be considered — among them, Rep. Tom Udall (who would
start the race with $716,000 in the bank), Albuquerque Mayor Martin
Chavez, and Wilson’s old adversary, Patricia Madrid. (Both Chavez
and Madrid could find their Latino roots advantageous in the
state.)
Less than 24 hours after Domenici and Wilson’s respective
announcements, it’s tough to have a feel for this race just yet,
but one thing is for certain: New Mexico will be a state to watch
next year and Republicans have every reason to be concerned.
