In the wake of Republican Sen. John Warner’s retirement
announcement just over a week ago, focus has shifted away from the
Senate maverick to another outside-the-mold Warner of Virginia
politics — Democratic ex-Gov. Mark Warner.
Speculation has been rife for months that if Sen. Warner
declined to run for re-election in 2008, the former Governor would
step into the ring. However, over Labor Day weekend, Mr. Warner
made clear that he is weighing at least two options: running for
Senate (as anticipated), or running for Governor again (less so). A
third option has also been mentioned: joining the 2008 Democratic
presidential ticket in the vice-presidential slot.
Any and all of these possibilities must be tempting to Mr.
Warner, who left office in 2006 with a 72 percent approval rating,
according to SurveyUSA. After all, he has made clear that he’s
interested in running for something big again, and soon, commenting
to a crowd in Newport News over Labor Day weekend, “My hope and
prayer is that sometime in the next few weeks I may be able to come
back to y’all as a job applicant.” But, the buffet of political
choices nonetheless presents Mr. Warner with a conundrum.
On the one hand, Sen. Charles Schumer of New York, chairman of
the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, is eager to sign Mr.
Warner on as the Democrats’ candidate for the 2008 Virginia Senate
race. Over Labor Day weekend, on ABC’s This Week, he said
he hoped that Mr. Warner would run and praised him as
“outstanding,” and “just exemplary.”
Mr. Warner would likely fare better in the race than would
current Gov. Tim Kaine, who has also been mentioned as a potential
candidate (Mr. Kaine’s approval rating currently stands at a rather
low 54 percent). Ditto that for Virginia Reps. Rick Boucher or
Bobby Scott, whose names have also been thrown into the mix, but
who are significantly less well-known across the Old Dominion. But
while Mr. Schumer may be angling for Mr. Warner to step into the
ring — his ring, specifically — a look at the ex-Governor’s
background suggests that spending six years in the U.S. Senate just
may not be his style.
Prior to his election as Governor, Mr. Warner helped to found
Nextel, and then venture capital firm Columbia Capital. That
suggests a flair for the executive — and that like his fellow
former Virginia governor, ex-Sen. George Allen, the deliberative,
stuffy Senate could end up boring him. For a man who seems to like
running things, not debating and taking orders from his colleagues,
the smart money is on him taking a serious look at running for
Governor again.
Virginia law limits gubernatorial terms to one at a time. But,
with Mr. Warner’s political heir, Mr. Kaine, due to finish his term
in January 2010, there is nothing that would prevent Mr. Warner
from stepping into the ring again in 2009 to reclaim his old job.
However, the question is, for a man who looks like he’s itching to
get back into elected office, can he wait that long? And what will
he do in the meantime?
This consideration probably tips the scales towards a Senate
run. However, with his name still in the mix as a preferred vice
presidential candidate in 2008, Mr. Warner might just be able to
have his cake and eat it, too.
With Sen. Hillary Clinton currently polling 16.8 percent ahead
of her nearest rival, nationally, according to the latest Real
Clear Politics average, and ahead by a noticeable margin in most
early primary state polls, the current presumption is that she will
be the Democratic nominee. The probability of that outcome will
feature heavily in Mr. Warner’s decision-making, with his name
remaining at the top of the veep-nominee list.
Certainly, adding Mr. Warner to a presidential ticket would be a
smart move for Mrs. Clinton. Yes, he did raise taxes on a bigger
scale than ever before seen in Virginia, relying on disarray
amongst Republicans to get the hike through. But he also scored
better than five of his fellow first-term governors, including one
Republican, and eleven second-term governors, including six
Republicans, on the CATO Institute’s 2004 Fiscal Policy Report Card
on America’s Governors (19 first-term, and 6 second-term, governors
scored better than Mr. Warner). That makes him look more moderate
than Mrs. Clinton, who despite all of her efforts at centrist
positioning in the Senate, is still perceived as being of the far
left by much of the electorate.
But would a Clinton-Warner team work? When Mr. Warner withdrew
his name from presidential consideration last year, there was
speculation in Democratic circles that Mrs. Clinton forced him out
of the race. What is certain is that last year, Mrs. Clinton’s
assistants sought to smack Mr. Warner down after he commented that
she “couldn’t win” (without him on her ticket, he might just be
proved correct).
In light of that apparent rivalry, the smart money has to be on
Mr. Warner not banking on a vice-presidential nomination. And that,
combined with his evident desire to get back into the political
ring and quickly, suggests that a Senate candidacy on the part of
the other Mr. Warner will be forthcoming.
