Fred Barnes recently summed up the view that dominates current
conservative thinking on 2008:
It’s not particularly visible at the moment, but there
is a road to political recovery for Republicans. Chances are they
won’t get far enough down it to recapture the House or Senate or
even hold the White House in 2008. But they might.
One can hardly fault Barnes or other conservatives for their
pessimism. The Democratic candidates for the presidency are raising
more money than the Republicans. Our troops are still in Iraq and
will almost certainly be there come November of next year. On
domestic issues, the ones that are salient now, like health care,
play to Democratic strengths. The right looks ahead to 2008 and
feels glum if not dread.
Yet, I think there are reasons for those of us on the right to
be more optimistic than that. Chances are close to even (although
not yet even) that the GOP will hold on to at least the White House
in 2008, and maybe even grab at least one house of Congress. Let’s
look at those reasons:
No Dick Cheney and Probably No John McCain:
President Bush is presently very unpopular, something that would be
huge handicap were his Vice President running to succeed him. But
Cheney isn’t running, so it will be difficult for the Democrats to
hang the Bush albatross around the GOP nominee’s neck. Not that
they won’t try, but since the he won’t be Cheney, the nominee will
have little trouble distancing himself from the Bush
administration. As for John McCain, well, 2000 is looking like his
year. Over the years he has antagonized many different parts of the
GOP base, from the religious right to tax cutters to those who hate
campaign finance laws. Were he the nominee, it would likely drive
down turnout among the GOP base. The smart money, though, is on
McCain not being the nominee.
Rudy and Mitt (and Fred?): Rudy and Mitt are
both proving to be good candidates. They’ve performed well on the
stump and in debates and have shown they can give as good as they
get. Giuliani has managed to hang onto, if not increase, his lead
among Republican candidates nationally, while Romney has shown
surprising strength in Iowa and New Hampshire. Furthermore, both
candidates have credibility on the issue of health care, Giuliani
by putting forth a plan early, Romney by implementing reform while
the governor of Massachusetts (although I think both plans leave a
lot to be desired). Fred Thompson, meanwhile, is proving to be a
wildcard. From April to June, his shadow candidacy ran smoothly;
since June, it has been one misstep after another. Which Fred will
show up when his candidacy officially begins in September, the Fred
of spring or summer? If it is the one of spring, then the GOP goes
into 2008 with three solid potential nominees.
Hillary Clinton: Is there another potential
Democratic nominee that the GOP should more wish for? Back in 2001,
the Pew Research Center reported Hillary Clinton’s favorable/unfavorable ratings
at 56%-44%. The latest such Pew poll from August of this year, has the breakdown
essentially unchanged, at 55%-45%. Despite all her efforts, Clinton
cannot overcome that fact that she has an image of a shrewish
schoolmarm who knows what is best for everyone (go here to see a recent “performance”). That image
will only intensify when more voters get to know her as November
2008 approaches. The American people will not elect Nurse Ratched
to the Oval Office. Of course, she might not be the Democratic
nominee, but it is looking more and more certain that she will.
The Surge: Believe it or not, the Surge is
working. Iraq is improving and so is American public opinion on the War. If it continues, Iraq
may no longer be a drag on the GOP by November 2008. Of course,
that is a big “IF.” Many things can still go wrong in Iraq.
However, if you had told any conservative a year ago that Iraq
would be improving in the summer of 2007, he would have thought you
were a nut. For now, we can at least keep our fingers crossed.
Feckless Congress: Apparently there is
something more unpopular the President Bush — the
Democrat-controlled Congress. Indeed, it has one of the lowest
approval ratings of any Congress ever. Democrats in
Congress has given the GOP plenty to run against next year, from
doing very little on earmarks, to doing nothing to extend Bush’s
tax cuts, to attempting to prevent workplace votes on unionization.
Republicans have a great foil for next year. Let’s hope they use
it.
Granted, conservatives should not feel cheery — yet. But we can
stop feeling so glum and wipe the frown off our faces. We have some
good reasons to think positively.
David Hogberg is a Washington writer and host of the
website Health Hog.
