John McCain’s campaign has been declared dead by the MSM and
conservative activists alike and many are speculating as to whether
McCain will stay in the race through the primaries. However, it may
be that pundits have failed to understand what motivates McCain,
who despite his years in Washington, operates — for better or
worse — unlike most Beltway veterans. We talked to Charles Black,
long time Republican strategist and a friend of McCain’s for
decades. He is now an unpaid senior adviser to the McCain
campaign.
People say they want a straight shooter, but is that the case
given McCain’s early problems?
Black demurs, saying it is “a little bit early to tell” and
explains that by his calculations only 10% of voters pay attention
to day-to-day politics. He says that a Democratic pollster with
whom he talked privately agrees that “authenticity” remains the
primary quality that voters seek and this greatly favors McCain.
Black is convinced that when we get down to the final weeks before
caucuses and primaries the “authenticity quotient” will rise for
many people and McCain will be the beneficiary.
Does McCain really march to a different drummer?
Black says that yes, contending that McCain has “always been
that way.” He attributes it directly to McCain’s “background and
history” in the military and as a prisoner of war. He says bluntly
that McCain “doesn’t fear much of anything” and views himself as
“here to do what is right, especially on the big issues like
Iraq.”
McCain is well known not to “suffer fools” — how can he
function in Washington?
“Most days John has a lot of patience,” Black says. But Black
then adds, “John is not very patient when someone is being a
phony.” He notes that McCain has exhibited patience to “get things
done” through the legislative process.
What about McCain’s personal relations and friendships?
Black explains that McCain’s “best friends are people he was in
Hanoi with. He stays in touch with them. It’s an extreme version of
a college fraternity.” He also points to enduring friends and
allies from his days in the House like Phil Gramm (who now serves
as a campaign adviser). Black then explains that he considers
McCain to be the “Great Reconciler” — pointing to his efforts to
re-establish diplomatic relations with Vietnam and his willingness
to work with John Kerry who had been “bad mouthing the U.S.
military” when McCain was imprisoned. Likewise, he says that
McCain’s efforts to reach out to Jerry Falwell are part of this
same penchant for mending fences McCain has shown his whole life,
not a political stunt as was portrayed by some in the media.
Does it bother McCain who has been pro-life his entire life that
social conservatives have not embraced him in this race?
Black allows that it “disturbs him” that some pro-life and
social conservative leaders “put emphasis on campaign finance
reform,” which they believe impaired their political efforts.
According to Black, these leaders “can’t forget” McCain’s
championing of campaign finance reform. He nevertheless believes
that voters themselves will look at the issues and eventually
recognize McCain’s solid credentials on abortion and other social
issues and conclude he has the “more consistent record” on social
issues.
Does McCain feel that Fred Thompson, who co-sponsored McCain
Feingold, is getting a “pass” while McCain takes the brunt of
conservative activists’ anger?
Black declines to offer criticism of Thompson but does point out
that people will “want to know where people stand on this.” He does
note that the Mitt Romney camp persists in repeating the phrase
“McCain-Feingold” and that he is certain “they won’t neglect [to
mention] it with Fred.”
Would McCain be devastated if he lost a second presidential
race?
Black says that McCain is “very, very resilient” and a loss
would “bother him but not for long.” He emphasizes that he has not
discussed this possibility with McCain who remains “such an
optimist.”
How has McCain reacted to his campaign difficulties?
Black jokes that of course, all things being equal, he would
like to “have had the $100M and gone home” but insists that McCain
“advances the ball best” when he is engaged in personal
campaigning, on the bus tours and doing town halls. Black says that
he “might be more comfortable” as the underdog in the race.
I asked Black how McCain assesses the situation in Iraq and how
he views the Administration’s failure to communicate clearly to the
American people what is at stake.
Black notes that while we were pursing a failed strategy McCain
was indeed “frustrated” and went so often to Iraq in order to be
able to assess the situation and argue for a course correction.
Black recalls that although he “obviously tangled with Rumsfeld”
McCain’s persistence paid off and the strategy he argued for is now
in place. He does agree that public support for the war is
“critically important,” which is why he continually speaks about
the issue. Black says McCain remains “cautiously optimistic” about
the President’s ability to sustain congressional support in
September but acknowledges that McCain is “pessimistic about the
Mailiki government” and was “more pessimistic when he came back”
from his recent trip.
I asked Black about McCain’s work ethic and whether he has his
heart in it for continuing the campaign.
Black says that McCain “believes in working all the time” and
that “the more hours he puts in the better.” Black says McCain is
not the type to take “breaks in the middle of the day” although
McCain, a sports fan, can be persuaded to watch sports for a break.
Nevertheless, Black contends that McCain will “outwork others” and
carries a work ethic he learned from his father. As for campaigning
Black says “when he is on the [campaign] bus riding around and
doing 4 or 5 town halls a day, it’s the best time he has.” He does
admit that McCain is “not crazy about fundraising” but says simply
that McCain “loves campaigning.”
If Charles Black’s take is correct we can expect McCain to
continue his fight against a precipitous withdrawal from Iraq and
his own campaign. To do anything different would simply not be like
Charles Black’s longtime friend.
