For devoted followers of The Sopranos and addicts of
the Godfather films there is a real life drama being
played out in recent weeks in Central Asia — Kazakhstan to be
exact.
This nation, formerly part of the Soviet Union, has ventured on
to the international scene (this time without the questionable help
of Borat) through the announcement of an arrest warrant (a.k.a.,
contract hit) for the once powerful son-in-law of its don,
President Nursultan Abishuly Nazarbayev.
The big man has been running the outfit since 1990, first as the
communist boss then as elected president. He just has had his
parliament legislate that (surprise, surprise) he is eligible to
keep the job for as long as he wishes to be elected. By the way,
the next election is in 2012 and even the opposition admits they’ll
be unable to get more than 30% of the vote.
Kazakhstan is no small time operation. The Nazarbayev family and
friends run a place that is sitting on immense oil and gas
reserves, and major exploitable mineral deposits including
strategically valuable uranium. Currently their tight little
organization exports about one million bpd of oil, with an
expectation of at least doubling that by 2015. Annual economic
growth has been running close to 10%. Foreign investment is at a
rate o $3 billion a year. As our old friends in Jersey would say,
“Enough for everyone to wet their beaks.”
Everything had been going great until the trusted underboss, the
don’s son-in-law, was implicated in the kidnapping of two top
bankers who had defied his direction. Rakhat Aliyev, the
son-in-law, was rushed off to Vienna — a bit like exile to Miami
in the old days — as much for his own good as it was for the
family. Nothing personal, just business.
Aliyev was supposed to sit in Vienna (without his wife) quietly
serving out his penance as ambassador to Austria and the
Organization for Security and Cooperation for Europe (OSCE) until
he had learned his lesson. Not a bad gig under the circumstances,
but in Aliyev’s eyes still an embarrassing demotion. The wise guy
could not keep his yap shut, bad mouthing the boss from long
distance even while he was scarfing down those Viennese cream
confections.
Aliyev has all the characteristics of one of the old Gambino
caporegime. He previously had been a principal enforcer
and head of the security services. He did not make many friends in
that capacity. Aliyev had leveraged his familial position to become
a powerful business mogul during the last 15 years. He did not take
rebukes easily.
The timing is unclear, but it appears that Aliyev made some
thoughtless remarks about running for the presidency in 2012 and
replacing “the old man.” Such comments were deemed extremely
inappropriate for a man who had amassed a fortune from his
advantageous marriage and had been protected by the don in the
kidnapping debacle. Some could say he brought on himself what
followed.
Whether it’s in North Jersey or North Kazakhstan, you don’t go
around disrespecting the don. Certainly you don’t say a word about
a future when the boss will no longer be around. Aliyev was
indicted for his alleged involvement in bank fraud. For good
measure, the kidnapping charge of the two bankers was tossed in. It
was time for Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter, Aliyev’s wife, to get
into the act.
Dariga Nazarbayeva is quite an influential person in her own
right. She led a major pro-government political party that has been
merged with others to form Nur Otan , the political bloc that now
controls the parliament. She swiftly moved to take over all her
husband’s investments through vigorous court actions, and then
promptly divorced him. He was informed of this by fax in Vienna at
about the same time that the local police had released him on bond
awaiting extradition to Kazakhstan. We’re still waiting.
THERE ARE ALWAYS A FEW side stories to any good Mafia tale, and
this caper is no exception:
First there is the all powerful Vlad Putin, don of dons, who has
his paisan, Nazarbayev, in a bit of a headlock when it
comes to pipeline access for Kazhaki gas flowing out of the country
to Europe. The K-crew would like to diversify their export routes
through China, but for the immediate future they’ll remain well
linked with the Putin family.
Next is the strong desire for international status that
Nazarbayev seeks through getting the chairmanship of the OSCE. In
this the Kazakhi clan is backed by the entire Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS), the group of former Soviet states (a.k.a.
The Twelve Families).
Lastly, is the fact that the United States sees considerable
strategic value in maintaining good relations with Kazakhstan and
its reigning Godfather as a bridge between Russia and China.
Now if the don would only take on Jacques Chirac as
consigliere…
