By Quin Hillyer on 7.11.07 @ 12:08AM
To win in Iraq, the president needs to change the current of the debate.
America's mission in Iraq, a profoundly moral mission, is not
dead yet. For President Bush to keep it alive, however, he must
identify a masterstroke to change the political equation here in
the U.S.A.
Right now, even as the controversial troop surge is achieving
notable successes in both the Baghdad area and in Anbar province
(see here, here, here, and
here for examples), support in Washington for the surge is
bleeding away with every new statement by Republican senators such
as Richard Lugar and Pete Domenici. Every reputable poll shows that
the American public has had more than enough, that it does not see
Iraq as either winnable or even worth winning, and that it blames
Bush for what it sees as an expanding fiasco.
Against these realities, the same old arguments and the same old
pleas to "give the surge a chance" will accomplish nothing. The
president must find a way, soon, to convince the public
that it is both possible and worthwhile to secure the peace in a
godforsaken country halfway around the planet. Otherwise, what
ensnared the president on immigration reform could befall him on
the war: Public opinion could force Congress to hand Bush a
monumental defeat, no matter how hard his administration fights for
his position.
The defeat could come, far more easily than the administration
believes, in the form of a bill sponsored by Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar
and Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander requiring a major troop
withdrawal no later than next March. Certainly, Bush could veto the
bill and probably sustain the veto in the House -- but at what
political cost? There comes a time when obvious weakness at home
leads to weakness abroad, which causes catastrophic damage to the
national interest.
All of which begs the question: What masterstroke? What
options exist, anywhere in the realm of the possible?
The first approach would be to try changing the terms of debate
by new communications strategies and tactics. Somehow, some way,
create a new narrative. Pull in outside communications advisors,
perhaps, and figure out a way to tell the stories of this war's
heroes -- its Audie Murphys, its Sergeant Yorks, its Andrew
Jacksons or (to bolster the idea that we still do have allies) even
its Lafayettes. Trumpet the successes in Iraq -- the hospitals
built, the schools opened, the new businesses started -- and
explain how we Americans might benefit from a friendly and more
prosperous Iraq. (It's also a good idea always to provide photos
and footage of us doing good over there. This helps balance the
ugly images that normally emerge from Iraq.)
Enlist somebody respected to make the case for staying the
course. Find some retired Democratic senators, perhaps -- Sam Nunn
and Bob Kerrey, if they will do it -- or some universally admired
retired athletes such as Arnold Palmer or Lance Armstrong, and have
them make the case for finishing the job. (Not that those people
mentioned above necessarily agree; but those are the types
of people who might be able to rally public support.) Remind people
how dethroning Saddam Hussein brought Libya's Moammar Qaddafi to
heel. Lay out, in cause-and-effect terms, the alternative scenarios
for success in Iraq versus failure there. Or something. Do
something, anything, creative to make the case in a new, powerful
way.
A second approach would be actually to do something dramatic. A
brand-new diplomatic offensive against Iran, for instance. Find a
way to enlist Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or other
nations of the region who worry about Iranian hegemony, in an
embargo or some other strong measure against Iran -- backed, if
necessary, by a credible threat of military force, such as
precision strikes on support facilities for Iranian nuclear plants.
For that matter, "black ops" to destabilize the Iranian regime
would complement a diplomatic offense quite well. Why Iran? Because
Iran is arming and training terrorists in Iraq, as well as
deploying or sponsoring terrorists who are radicalizing and
destabilizing the whole region. Because the Iranian public already
has been rioting against Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and
because it is clear that at least a very substantial minority of
the Iranian public (especially its young adults) are open to,
indeed enthusiastic about, Western culture and ideals. And because
any triumph in the Middle East will help buy credibility here at
home for the Bush administration, and thus buy time for the surge's
successes to become ever more clear.
A third approach would be to create new benchmarks for success
in Iraq. In other words, redefine the intermediate goals of the
surge to highlight achievements that are well on the way to being
realized
Fourth, the administration might work to "flip" noted skeptics
over to the administration's position. What if some careful
nurturing could convince James Baker and Lee Hamilton of the Iraq
Study Group that it is worth their while to embrace the surge
publicly in all its particulars? What if a prominent newspaper's
editorial board could be convinced to change its tune based on
evidence from the war zone?
There must be a way, somehow, to shake up the political
situation here in the United States so as to buy the time necessary
for military successes to become apparent. Again, that's the whole
idea: to buy time, politically, in order for the surge to work.
What the United States is doing in Iraq is moral. We deposed a
vicious dictator who annually killed tens of thousands of his own
people while threatening his neighbors and plotting to murder
millions with weapons of mass death. We are trying to create a
Middle Eastern vanguard of freedom and human rights. We are
protecting American strategic interests -- which, the American
people must be reminded, are right and just and good because the
United States itself is right and just and good.
And by fighting terrorists in Iraq, if we do so successfully, we
send a message that terrorism itself is a province of losers, a bad
bet, a futile cause.
We can accomplish our moral goals in Iraq only if we
victoriously secure the peace -- and only the surge can secure that
peace, and it can do so only if given time for its demonstrable
early successes both to take root and grow.
Past mistakes in fighting this war are immaterial to the task
ahead. President Bush rightly has identified the central struggle
of our time, and he now has in place the strategy, the surge, that
actually has a chance to achieve victory in the main front of that
struggle. But it will take a political surge at home, secured
through some diplomatic or communications jujitsu, to keep the
surge alive in an Iraq teetering on the edge between chaos, if it
fails, and the achievable dream of ordered liberty.
topics:
Business, Military, Iraq, Iran, NATO, Immigration