By Michael Fumento on 6.8.07 @ 12:09AM
Our troops know it. They just need more help.
"This war is winnable." I can't say how often during my recent
embed in the southern Afghanistan Province of Zabul, just north and
east of Kandahar, I heard officers and noncoms say that. Implicit
is that it's also losable; but what they really mean is winnable in
comparison to Iraq.
Strange but true that Afghanistan -- with four major ethnic
groups, two official languages, and almost countless lesser
languages -- is far more of a proud, united nation than Iraq. They
have Sunni and Shia, but their differences are just an excuse for a
chat over chai tea. Further, while it's way too early to say if the
Iraqi "surge" is working, the much-anticipated massive Taliban
spring offensive in Afghanistan has thus far proved more a trickle
than a deluge.
Still, as I note in my article "The Other War" in the June 11 Weekly
Standard, it would be a mistake to assume time is on our side.
Afghans seem to be losing patience with the war effort, and while
that may not help the Taliban (over 90 percent of Afghans dislike them), it can
certainly hinder President Hamid Karzai in his efforts to keep the
warlords at bay. It's warlords, not sectarianism, that pose the
internal threat.
The most threatening is General Abdul Rashid Dostum, a major
Northern Alliance leader against the Taliban. But before that, he
fought on the side of the Soviets and the Communist government.
Probably to undercut the government, which has essentially excluded
him, he (announced in May that he can raise an army and
drive out the Taliban in six months.
Further, despite major setbacks this year, including the May 13
killing of Mullah Dadullah, a butcher frequently called "the
military mastermind of the Taliban insurgency" whose headquarters
were in Zabul, there have been increasing calls for negotiating
with "moderate Taliban." This includes the Afghan senate itself , which has grown weary of the
Taliban tactic of hiding their forces among civilians to cause the
deaths of innocents from U.S. and NATO fire. Yet the enemy itself
insists "moderate Taliban" is oxymoronic.
I've only visited parts of Iraq on three occasions and part of
Afghanistan, but I've seen enough to know that while the Iraq
effort is awash with money but lacking in men, the war in
Afghanistan is being fought on a shoestring in terms of both. There
will be about 155,000 U.S. troops in Iraq when the buildup is
complete, but there are only about 27,000 U.S. troops in
Afghanistan, a country larger in both geography and population.
A massive concrete blast wall in Iraq is a mere mud wall in
Afghanistan. "It takes four weeks here just to get cement," 1st.
Lt. Keith Wei, executive officer of the American unit with which I
was embedded, told me. "We need to help build and to provide
security, but we just don't have the funds. Everybody here
understands what needs to be done but their hands are tied by a
lack of resources in both funds and people. We could pacify Zabul
in probably a year if they pumped money into here like they do
Iraq."
Yet together, both wars plus all other defense spending consume
about 3.8 percent of gross domestic product, or just over a third
of the GDP percentage spent at the height of the Vietnam War. Total
U.S. forces currently in both Iraq and Afghanistan amount to just a
third of the 540,000 employed for the limited purpose of driving
Saddam's forces out of Kuwait in 1991.
Still, that might not be a problem in Afghanistan if NATO
nations didn't refuse to pull their weight -- in total personnel
contributed, combat soldiers, or defense expenditures. Only six of
37 NATO countries with troops in Afghanistan will even allow them
to fight, namely the U.S.; the U.K.; Canada; the Netherlands;
Romania; and tiny Estonia. Only six spend as much as 2 percent of
their GDP on defense. Even as they refer to America as a bellicose
"cowboy" nation, they sit back and let us and a handful of other
countries expend the money and blood.
"You can see victory on the horizon," says Wei. "We just don't
have the means to get there."
topics:
Military, Iraq, NATO
