Roughly six months before the first votes are cast it already
seems like the presidential contenders have been at it forever.
Much has happened, or not happened, in the last six months.
Most strikingly, any hope by Senator John McCain that he would
be seen as the inevitable heir to George Bush evaporated as Rudy
Giuliani rose to the top of the polls, McCain’s fundraising proved
lackluster, and the tsunami of immigration opposition rolled
through the base. Although it is both premature and silly to write
him off months before the Ames straw poll, he’s finding the path to
the nomination rough going.
We also have seen the further deterioration of the Bush
presidency. Presidential candidates’ criticism of the war’s
mismanagement, Alberto Gonzales, and the immigration proposal
seemed to shift the race from a contest to see who could best
defend this administration to who can best explain how he would be
an improvement over the current President.
What did not happen, at least not yet, is the emergence of a
breakthrough candidate from the second tier. Neither Sam Brownback,
Duncan Hunter nor Mike Huckabee has made a leap to even the high
single digits, although Huckabee has received good reviews for his
debate performances. What about the top contenders?
For Romney, his fundraising and debate performances have given
his campaign life and his campaign sees the immigration frenzy that
has overtaken the GOP as a big break, putting McCain on the
defensive and allowing him to appeal to the conservative base. As
spokesman Kevin Madden notes, “It takes about two minutes of any Q
and A session on the campaign trail to realize that immigration is
a very important issue to voters. There is a great deal of
animosity towards this current immigration agreement, and the core
fault that most folks point to is that it is unfair. It unfairly
sides with those that have broken the law over those that have
abided by the laws. Senator McCain has been rather dismissive of
these concerns raised by voters, but that’s a very big
mistake.”
However, the pounding on Romney’s “flip flop” problem and the
sense that he may be too polished and not tough enough to take on
the world’s villains may limit further progress. With Fred
Thompson’s entry, those seeking a reliable conservative may latch
onto a less vulnerable candidate with greater presence. It would
not be surprising to see Romney attempt to “differentiate” himself
from Thompson by stressing his own executive experience (“the best
narrative for the ‘why’ he is the best choice for president,”
according to Madden) and questioning Thompson’s relatively light
resume.
For McCain two strong debate performances and a bounce in the
polls led to expectations in April that he had regained his footing
as media pundits trumpeted the McCain “surge.” Then came
immigration reform and the firestorm in the political base. The
campaign’s response that “border security” voters were not in his
corner to begin with has some truth, but with many polls showing
immigration as one of the top issues for Republican primary voters
the anti-amnesty crowd may prove to be a large chunk of the primary
electorate.
Despite the recent immigration furor, McCain spokesman Kevin
McLaughlin says they are “very happy” where they sit. McCain’s
campaign remains focused on the initial primary states of New
Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina, where his poll numbers remain
strong. “Three yards and a cloud of dust” — slowly and steadily
building a ground game is McCain’s current approach.
Nevertheless, McCain’s decision to go after Romney (who trails
him in the national polls and had a less impressive second than
first debate performance) in personal, biting terms left some
scratching their heads. Had he sacrificed the high ground and
unnecessarily boosted an opponent? “Political gift” was how the
Romney camp greeted this tactic.
For Rudy Giuliani the last few months saw the fall from
stratospheric poll numbers to a comfortable first place in the
national polls. Communications Director Katie Levinson says that
the campaign was under no illusion that his 20-point early lead
would hold up and is “extraordinarily pleased” where they are now.
The transition from 9/11 hero to candidate was not without its
bumps, including a rocky first debate, but he found his footing
with a well-received speech to evangelicals in Houston and in the
second debate, with an assist from Ron Paul. His claim to be the
best economic conservative in the race gained traction with a stamp
of approval from the Club for Growth.
As for the social issues, the Giuliani camp certainly hopes that
Grover Norquist got it right in a recent Rolling Stone
interview when he said, “What brings social conservatives to the
Republican party is not some list of 20 things that James Dobson
would like to see.” If, as Norquist suggests, conservatives will be
satisfied with support for parental control, respect for religion,
school choice, and good judges, Giuliani can continue making his
case on the big issues: aggressive tactics against terrorists, tax
and budget reform, leadership and electability.
Thompson will likely pull support from Giuliani as well as the
other candidates, but the test will be whether his congenial image
and light resume will compare favorably with Giuliani’s record and
public image. As Levinson explains, Giuliani’s campaign thinks it
has a winning formula based on Giuliani’s “leadership” credentials
and appeal as an executive who “can get it done at the end of the
day.”
Thompson himself will have his work cut out for him. Voters will
need to know him, not just a character, as well as his positions.
Time, money, organization, and hard work will be needed to
establish Thompson’s own niche in the race. He must more clearly
define a rationale for his candidacy other than the “conventional
conservative who has been smart enough to avoid others’ mistakes.”
If he does fill the niche of Washington outsider and offers
innovative ideas for recapturing Republican competency and
conservative ideals, it will make for a very interesting race.
As we head into the summer months Thompson’s entry will no doubt
result in a further tightening of the race. We can look for key
tests of the candidates’ strength: the second quarter fundraising
results at the end of June and the Ames straw poll. By the fall
Newt Gingrich may join the fray, further scrambling the field and
proving that everything we know today may change overnight.
