By W. James Antle, III on 5.18.07 @ 12:08AM
When it comes to his Senate immigration deal, conservatives aren't in a forgiving mood.
With the White House's blessing, the Senate has reached a deal
on immigration. And Sen. John McCain has handed his opponents for
the Republican nomination a mighty club to wield against him -- if
they choose to use it.
As Rudy Giuliani's lead over the Arizona senator slipped into
the single digits in many national polls, McCain assumed a lower
profile on the immigration issue. Sen. Sam Brownback went even further, repudiating his support for last
year's Senate bill containing a path to citizenship for illegal
immigrants. Now there is a new bill offering such a provision and
McCain, like fellow Arizonan Jon Kyl, is on board.
However the rest of the field responds, this much is clear: When
Ronald Reagan revived his flagging 1976 presidential campaign by
railing against the Panama Canal Treaty, many observers were
shocked by the issue's resonance. Today, no one can be surprised
when conservatives speak out against anything that can be construed
as amnesty for illegal immigrants.
The reaction to the immigration announcement was swift. Newt
Gingrich, the former House speaker and perhaps future presidential
candidate, denounced it on Sean Hannity's radio show as "a sellout
of every conservative principle." The Heritage Foundation agreed. Congressman Mike Pence issued a
statement calling the bill an amnesty.
While the deal was being picked apart by talk radio and the
blogs, John McCain was appearing on television with Ted Kennedy to
promote it. Arlen Specter's presence -- and insistence that the
Senate isn't talking about amnesty -- doesn't give McCain much
cover with conservatives. Neither does the news that the bill was drafted with the help of
liberal groups like the National Council of La Raza.
Is it amnesty? Like past versions of McCain-Kennedy, the bill
offers illegal aliens a path to citizenship and creates a new
guest-worker program. Supporters argue that the measure only
applies to illegals who have passed a background check while paying
fines and back taxes. In a new twist, guest workers could only be
admitted and unlawful immigrants legalized after certain
enforcement provisions have taken effect. And in the long term, the
legislation may shift the immigration system's focus away from
family reunification and toward employment skills.
But there are already concerns that the "enforcement triggers"
may prove more fungible than advertised. If the Democrats win in
2008, do conservatives trust Hillary's Department of Homeland
Security to certify that the borders are secure? Worse, the bill
creates probationary "Z visas" for illegal immigrants present and
working in the United States since the beginning of this year as
well as their parents, spouses, and children.
The probationary period begins before any of the enforcement
triggers are pulled. The visa-holders are eligible to stay in the
country indefinitely, possibly undermining the appeal of the path
to citizenship. And all this assumes that the country's existing
immigration bureaucracy, with a backlog of 4 million unresolved
cases, can properly determine the status of at least 12 million
people in a timely manner.
It may be 1986 all over again. After that year's Immigration
Reform and Control Act became law, nearly twice as many people
applied as officials expected and over 90 percent were accepted.
Today the numbers are even greater. So is the potential for amnesty
to occur without the promised enforcement ever materializing.
Mitt Romney was quick to pounce. "I strongly oppose today's bill
going through the Senate," he said in a statement. "It's the wrong
approach." All eyes are on Rudy -- and the rest of the GOP
contenders, all the way down to the bottom tier. McCain has helped
give his rivals an opportunity to appeal to disaffected
conservatives on a populist issue.
"Life is unfair," John F. Kennedy observed. However mistaken
this deal, McCain is as much a conviction politician on immigration
as Tom Tancredo. Giuliani once sued to block welfare and immigration reform laws he
believed were too strict with New York City's illegal aliens.
Romney took a position similar in principle to this bill's
language as recently as Tuesday's South Carolina debate.
But conservative voters will remember the immigration
partnership between John McCain and Ted Kennedy. In a Republican
primary, that is dangerous company to keep.
topics:
Taxes, John McCain, Television, Law, NATO, Immigration
