WASHINGTON — Another week passes, and on the New York
Times front page there appears yet another ominous report on
the perils facing Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential
prospects. First the Times reported on the ambivalence of
Hillary’s Wellesley classmates towards her. Now the Times
reports that a growing number of New York’s black political leaders
are looking favorably towards her main rival for the Democratic
presidential nomination, Senator Barack Obama, who is black. “Rise
of Obama Strains Loyalty On Clinton Turf,” is the headline. The
“Turf” in question is New York’s black Democratic electorate. In
the 2004 New York state primary black Democrats composed 20% of
their party’s turnout. The Clinton camp has reason to worry.
Expecting Hillary to campaign effectively against Obama in the
black community is expecting a lot from this middle-aged suburban
lawyer, educated in the Ivy League. So the Clinton campaign is
rousing America’s “first black president,” her husband Bill, to
address black and Hispanic groups. Actually, when the black
novelist Toni Morrison first esteemed the Boy President as our
“first black president,” I doubt she recognized the irony. Of all
America’s previous presidents, the one who most closely
approximates Clinton, in presidential achievements and in personal
frailties, is Warren Gamaliel Harding, a much loved rascal who,
irony of ironies, was rumored to have black blood — not a
compliment in his day, but neither would it be a compliment then to
appraise a president a “rock star” or even a “vaudeville star.”
Times change.
With Senator Obama all Americans — white and black — are
getting a candidate of sounder character than Clinton or Harding.
Moreover, for a political newcomer Obama is mounting a surprisingly
formidable campaign. He has rarely misspoken and he seems well
organized. In the first 90 days of 2007 he raised more money for
the primaries than Hillary ($24.8 million to $19.1 million) and he
raised it from a wider base, more than 108,000 donors for Obama,
50,000 for Hillary.
Hillary’s supporters seem to be what we might call the
Democratic Party’s old money, Hollywood and Wall Street. Obama’s
supporters might be seen as new money, younger donors, donors from
the Internet. Increasingly it appears Hillary has troubles within
the Democratic base, for instance with blacks and the next
generation of angry left-wingers. Thus desperation is creeping in.
She is caught affecting a phony African-American accent in
addressing blacks. Talk radio and Drudge boom it across the land —
more desperation.
No wonder two publishing houses, having invested heavily in
books on Hillary, are rushing them out. If she does not turn this
campaign around, she may not make it through the primaries. This
week we heard that Carl Bernstein’s A Woman in Charge will
be out June 19. Two months later Her Way by Jeff Gerth and
Don Van Natta will be out, possibly sooner.
I find the challenges facing Hillary’s nomination all very
gratifying. In my current book chronicling the Boy President’s
adventures in retirement, The Clinton Crack-Up, I predict
her problems. She is not a natural politician, and I even doubt
that she is all that tough a political campaigner. Truth be known,
she is very cautious.
When I crashed her husband’s 60th birthday party in Toronto I
found myself seated with two of his top aides. They were lamentably
garrulous fellows, and I was all ears. They had no idea who I was.
It was early autumn. The 2006 off-year elections had yet to be
decided. One Clinton aide allowed as how Hillary had yet to decide
on a presidential run. She wanted to see how well the Democrats did
in November. If they did well, she would probably run. If they did
badly, she would probably not run. And one other thing: she was
very apprehensive about running against Senator John McCain. Now
with former Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the race, my guess is she
worries about facing either of these Republican frontrunners.
Now in her own party she faces the growing threat of Obama. For
Hillary these are parlous times, even daunting times.
