The news this week reminded us that Iraq is not the only news
story and not the only factor in 2008 presidential politics. For
Republicans dreading another drubbing at the polls as the public
mood continues to sour on the Iraq war, this was a reminder that
domestic issues and individual personalities count very much and to
a large degree may still benefit the GOP field.
The partial birth abortion ruling made clear that all the
Democratic candidates oppose a ban on a procedure a large majority
of voters (and their congressional representatives) find abhorrent
and that all Republicans favor a ban. Moreover, Republicans
relished the opportunity to remind voters that Bush appointed
judges — ones that both preach and practice judicial restraint and
offer deference to the decisions of democratically elected
legislators — were responsible for the decision. In many cases to
be decided between now and Election Day, whether on the Second
Amendment or affirmative action, Republicans will be on the side of
popular opinion and grouchy Democrats are like to underscore the
gap between liberal elite and popular opinion.
What Larry Kudlow describes as the “greatest story never told”
— the triumph of the U.S. economy — was indeed being told again.
The stock market reached another high on earnings news and
confidence about continued healthy growth and restrained inflation.
John Kerry’s gripe about “the worst economy since Hoover” seems
more comical with each passing day. The year 2010, the point at
which the Bush tax cuts will expire, seems not so far off now and
will be front and center in the general election with Democrats
chomping at the bit to raise taxes.
In other news, the marvelously effective Mitch McConnell was
able to block Democratic attempts to require federal negotiation
(and potential control) of Medicare drug prices. As even the
New York Times conceded: “Republicans framed the issue as
a choice between government-run health care and a benefit managed
by the private sector.” The Times remarkably went on to
acknowledge: “The vote also reflected ineffectual advocacy by
Democrats, who were slow in responding to the vehement arguments of
well-prepared Republican senators” who demonstrated the
effectiveness of private market forces in keeping prices low.
Gallup pollsters this week showed Hillary Clinton’s growing
unfavorable rating — now above 50%. Republicans can take comfort
in knowing they will run against an opponent, whether the divisive
Hillary or a lightly experienced Barack Obama, who will have
serious flaws of their own.
However, this week also saw the cringe inducing testimony of
Alberto Gonzales who seemed not so malicious as down right
befuddled. If ever a stark reminder was necessary that the first
requirement of voters may be minimal competence, this was it. If
this is indeed to be a competence election, than seasoned
executives like Giuliani, Romney, and perhaps even Bill Richardson
may stand to benefit.
Of course, the horrible events at Virginia Tech obliterated much
of the news. But even this served to underscore the degree to which
the debate has shifted in the conservatives’ favor. Democrats were
surprisingly mum and even pessimistic that gun control efforts
would benefit. Moreover, horrible, unpredictable events like this
remind us that the strength, wisdom, and decency of our leaders are
as important as the positions they take. Either of the two leading
GOP candidates — the war hero or the courageous mayor — could,
voters I think will agree, be seen as capable and strong leaders in
a world sometimes seen as nothing short of mad.
This is not to say that Iraq and foreign affairs will not be
high on the list of voter concerns in 2008. However, it does remind
pundits and voters alike that there is a range of issues which
count. Unexpected events tend to emphasize the importance of
leadership and political courage. How each candidate handles the
ups and downs of the campaign and the issues of this week plus
immigration, stem cell research, entitlement reform, taxes and a
host of other issues may be key to determining the nominee and the
eventual winner in November. Looked at in this light, there may be
some measure of hope for the Republican candidates.
