By now, the conservatives’ dilemma in the 2008 race is familiar:
The three media-approved frontrunners — Rudolph Giuliani, John
McCain, and Mitt Romney — all have problems with the right on
several major issues. Yet the candidates in the race with the
strongest conservative credentials lack the money, organization,
and name recognition to go the distance.
Dissatisfaction with the current field has shown itself in
various ways. A recent New York Times poll indicated that
nearly six Republicans in ten wanted more choices. Draft movements
for candidates not yet in the race keep springing up, as the GOP
waits for a leading man like Fred Thompson — or even Newt Gingrich
— to come to the rescue.
Why is it so hard for conservatives to find a presidential
prospect who is true to their principles but can also win? An
answer could be found by looking at Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore’s
presidential campaign. From life to taxes and guns to terrorism,
Gilmore can claim to be mainstream conservatism’s main man.
Conservatives have often
praised Gilmore’s record. As governor, he signed a
partial-birth abortion ban as well as legislation requiring
parental notification and a 24-hour waiting period. In a local
Terri Schiavo-like case, he fought to keep coma victim Hugh Finn’s
feeding tube from being removed.
In addition to famously cutting the car tax, Gilmore deserves
credit for 15 other tax reductions, including one that offered
relief to military families. The former Republican National
Committee chairman is pro-gun — he serves on the board of the
National Rifle Association and is an anti-amnesty,
enforcement-first Republican on illegal immigration.
On Iraq, the issue Republicans tell pollsters they consider most
important, Gilmore strongly supports the troops’ mission and
rejects the notion that a fast pullout is the answer. And he is not
without anti-terrorism credentials of his own, leading the Gilmore
commission and serving as president of USA Secure, a nonprofit
group that organizes technology and infrastructure companies who
deal with the day-to-day operations of homeland security. Gilmore
also ran the National Council on Preparedness.
So why is this staunch conservative eating Giuliani’s dust?
Because Gilmore is a textbook example of a candidate who is good on
the issues but plagued by low name recognition, lackluster
fundraising, and a campaign organization that can’t hold a candle
to the top tier hopefuls’.
For starters, his campaign operation is floundering. With
virtually no staff and little money, Gilmore is in no position to
be an effective candidate.
Consider his attempt to reach out to grassroots conservatives at
CPAC last month. Spending some time with the campaign, I observed
very little communication between members of the so-called staff,
in what can only be described as a fly by the seat of your pants
type of operation. The day of Gilmore’s reception, one in which
literally hundreds of people would show up to meet the governor in
person, his staff was behind the scenes, scrambling to buy beer at
the local liquor store just minutes before the event.
Gilmore’s booth at CPAC was anything but presidential. The
banner for it had been ordered by the staff just hours before the
reception, only to have word come down that another banner had
already been made somewhere else and at twice the cost. Peter
Foster, Gilmore’s special assistant, has known the governor for the
better part of a decade but knew little about his public policy
stances, much less where the candidate was going to appear at any
given time.
I asked Kieran Mahoney, general consultant to the Gilmore
campaign, to shed some light on why the governor had not yet opened
a New Hampshire campaign headquarters and had cancelled his next
two trips to the state with the first presidential primary.
“I think it’s a waste of resources,” he told me. Apparently,
Mahoney’s idea of a waste is to spend time in one of the most
important states in the race, to which nearly every candidate has
given some attention — except Gilmore. This careful stewardship of
campaign resources hasn’t paid off in the polls, where Gilmore is
often stuck at 1 percent. Nor has it exactly been bringing in the
crowds on the hustings.
While Gilmore did manage to pull in $200,000 at his first
fundraiser, don’t expect an announcement that he is nipping at
Romney’s heels. His spokesman Christian Josi told the Richmond
Times-Dispatch, “We are not playing the first-quarter
game.”
Like so many lower-tier Republican candidates, Gilmore says the
right things. Unlike some others, he actually has a record of doing
them. But a campaign like this can’t beat McCain or Giuliani, much
less Hillary Clinton.
When I asked Gilmore what he made of the hurdles that face him
in this race, he merely responded, “I don’t need a lot of pomp and
circumstance. I don’t need to pretend I am something I’m not.”
But that pomp and circumstance is precisely what is putting the
frontrunners, as unsatisfactory as they may be, so far out ahead. A
winning candidate needs more than convictions.
If the Republican primaries next year end up pitting ideals
against electability, I wish every conservative luck.
