If you’re like me, you feel that The Godfather Part II
is one of maybe a dozen fine movies to come out of Hollywood in the
last 50 years. In it is a scene that often comes to my mind: In
Cuba, Michael Corleone says to Hyman Roth, “I saw an interesting
thing happen today.” While he goes on to relate a tale of Castro’s
guerrillas, the line represents a major turning point in the
plot.
Similar critical moments also occur in some political seasons,
one of which may be the 2008 presidential contest. While many
moneymen have already committed their considerable funds and
fundraising machinery to one candidate or another, the hearts of
many voters remain un-won.
This is especially true in the Republican Party where most of
its conservative base is left largely uncommitted; wandering in the
desert, searching for a savior to bring it home. The smart-money
guys — this includes the above-mentioned professional consultants
and operatives as well as the mainstream media — are peddling a
bill of goods touting Rudy Giuliani as The One, but to many
conservatives he remains a false prophet at best.
Many experts saw the 2006 midterm elections as a sign that the
American electorate has soured on the GOP and the “values” issues
they reportedly held so dear in returning George W. Bush to the
White House only two short years before. Indeed, media Democrats
are so emboldened by their congressional majority, they feel
confident enough to helpfully suggest that only a “moderate”
Republican like Rudy can hope to prevent The Clintons Part II.
Last week I wrote of the amazing draft Fred Thompson movement.
And this week, I saw an interesting thing happen. As dubiously as I
normally regard polling data, the latest from Rasmussen — its first national
telephone survey involving Thompson — may be highly instructive.
The results show that without even the brim of his hat in the ring,
he already leads Hillary Clinton by a percentage point.
True, it also has him trailing Barack Obama by 12%, but the bad
news for Obama is that although he has a robust 54% favorability
rating, he has a 36% unfavorable mark, which means that only 10% of
those polled are left with no opinion of him. Likewise, only two
percent are undecided about Mrs. Clinton; not surprising since
she’s been in the national spotlight for nearly 15 years. And while
Rudy — with a 66% favorability rating — beats both of them head
to head poll-wise, only a slim five percent of those
polled had no opinion of him.
In other words, with nine months to go before the first
primaries kick off, most folks have their minds made up about the
front-runners. On the other hand, according to the poll Thompson
shows a 36% favorable and only a 23% unfavorable number meaning
that he’s got a potential 41% of the folks to win over. Should his
Reagan-like affability and common sense values appeal to say, even
half of them, we’ve got ourselves a horse-race with a real
conservative entry in it.
There are those who say that it’s too late for Fred; that it
takes an enormous amount of time to build up name recognition.
These people obviously never sit around, as do I, enjoying adult
beverages with regular folks who can effortlessly identify
everyone, from last night’s contestants on American Idol
to the latest missing mountaineer by name.
Some also contend that he’s way behind in endorsements and
fundraising. But scuttlebutt has it that nearly one quarter of
House Republicans may be ready to back him when he visits Capitol
Hill on April 18th. And money from grassroots conservatives and the
rest of the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy could pile up quickly should
they feel they have one of their own in the fight.
And so, following Vito Corleone’s advice to his son regarding
enemies, let’s listen to what our close friends at the Daily Kos think of Thompson:
[H]e’s popular with the Republican base AND has proven
electoral appeal with swing voters and independents…. [H]e’s very
intelligent, a strong speaker and an excellent debater….Moreover,
he would have several strengths against any of our top three
candidates. He comes off to most as more likable than Hillary
Clinton. Unlike McCain, Giuliani or Romney, he’ll certainly
out-Southern John Edwards. And he’ll score well on the gravitas
score against either Edwards or Obama (less so for the latter)….
Let’s hope he doesn’t run, or that if he does, all the top money
and operatives have already been snatched up and he gains no more
traction than, say, Mike Huckabee.
Lisa Fabrizio is a columnist who hails from
Connecticut. You may write her at mailbox@lisafab.com.
