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Most important, Seoul isn't going to join an anti-China coalition. Any American attempt to "contain" Beijing is likely to founder on the ROK's unwillingness to turn its behemoth neighbor into a permanent enemy. Indeed, China already trades more with South Korea than does the U.S. American domination inevitably will ebb.
THE LAST RESORT FOR ALLIANCE defenders is to claim that ending the relationship would embolden the North. But Washington has begun negotiations with Pyongyang over establishing diplomatic relations; an American withdrawal could become an important bargaining chip.
North Korea long has demanded America's departure from the Korean peninsula. Both the U.S. and South Korean governments should challenge the North to respond by demobilizing soldiers and pulling back military units from the Demilitarized Zone.
It's far too early to judge whether the nuclear accord recently forged with Pyongyang will succeed when others have failed. But Washington and Seoul should use the prospect of American disengagement to test the sincerity of the DPRK's professed interest in relaxing tensions and forging a new regional compact.
All politics is local, claimed late House Speaker Tip O'Neill. In a different sense, all politics is national. There's little Washington can do to influence the upcoming South Korean elections even if it desires to do so.
But should a more America-friendly ROK government emerge in December's election, that result should not deter the U.S. from updating today's antiquated military alliance. The changing world, not changing politicians, is why it is time to bring home America's troops.
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