WASHINGTON -- Rudy Giuliani's pursuit of the Republican
presidential nomination brings to my mind a book I wrote in the
early 1990s, The Conservative Crack-Up. When I wrote the
book Ronald Reagan's successor, President George H. W. Bush, was
ignoring many of the constituent ingredients of the Reagan
Revolution, for instance, tax cuts. The various factions of the
conservative coalition were disgruntled and threatening to take a
walk. Once again liberal pundits were diagnosing the conservative
movement as moribund. Ever since the conservative movement's
ascendancy within the Republican Party in 1964, these grim
diagnoses have been handed down episodically. Every time there is
dissatisfaction among conservatives or they suffer some electoral
setback, the liberal pundits step forward and pronounce the modern
conservative movement at death's door. In my book I ventured the
witticism that "conservatism is America's longest dying political
movement."
By 1994 and the arrival of Newt Gingrich's "Contract With
America," it became apparent that the movement was not dead but
rather on its way to palmy days. This was what I anticipated in
The Conservative Crack-Up, where I was careful to note
that though the movement embraces contending factions they all come
together at election time. The libertarians, the social
conservatives, the hawks -- all recognize that the Democrats'
alternative to them is a greater threat than they in good
conscience could allow into government. I predicted that the
conservative crack-up of the late 1990s would be transient and the
conservative movement would go from strength to strength. Its
overall agenda was good for the country. The agenda of the
constantly changing enthusiasts of liberalism was too
destructive.
Today, after very little effort, Giuliani is the frontrunner for
the Republican nomination. Dick Morris is predicting a Giuliani vs.
Clinton race in 2008. Yet some conservatives are dubious of the man
who cleaned up New York, returned it to a vigor unimaginable from
the 1960s through the 1980s, and then led New York and the country
heroically through 9/11. Well, one knows a politician by the
company he keeps, and Giuliani has around him the financial people
who created the libertarian-conservative Manhattan Institute. He
relied heavily on the Institute's policies while governing New
York. He will rely on libertarian-conservative policy makers in his
race for the White House and once there.
One also knows a political leader by the action he takes. As
mayor Giuliani took on the nanny state that city government had
become, reducing the dependency that had one in seven New Yorkers
living off government support. As for New York's huge welfare
rolls, he more than halved them and had more than 100,000 welfare
recipients finding work annually by 1999. He cleaned up the
crime-ridden streets, cutting crime by 57% and murder by 67%. By
cutting spending and taxes he turned an economic basket case into
an economic marvel. In eight years he reduced or extinguished 23
taxes. Every year he was in office, New York City's economy grew
faster than the nation's.
Then came 9/11 and he displayed to the nation the traits he had
so successfully displayed in reviving his city. He was decisive,
efficient, prudent, and -- something only those at his side in
Gracie Mansion already knew -- brave. After the first plane struck
the World Trade Center, he instantly rushed to the scene. Arriving
just after the second plane hit he reestablished governance nearby
as the towers came down. He was in genuine peril but coolly oversaw
the rescue work and communication with the outside world.
He had already demonstrated his awareness of the danger and
nihilism of terrorists. In 1995 he expelled PLO leader Yasser
Arafat from commemorations of the United Nations' 50th anniversary
sponsored by the city, saying, "When we're having a party and a
celebration, I would rather not have someone who has been
implicated in the murders of Americans there...." Steadily his
knowledge of international terrorism has grown to the point that he
is now acknowledged as one of the world's foremost authorities on
terror. That alone in these times should commend him to the
majority of the American electorate.
Still, he has another asset, noted by Steven Malanga in a
comprehensive essay on Giuliani's achievements published in the
Winter issue of City Journal from which I have derived
many of the above statistics. "Not since Teddy Roosevelt took on
Tammany Hall," Malanga writes, "...has a New York politician
closely linked to urban reform looked like presidential timber." As
an urban reformer and seasoned warrior in the struggle against
international terror, Giuliani will be a formidable candidate for
the presidency. Surely conservatives of all stripes will recognize
this. What they need to hear next is where the mayor who would be
president stands on conservative social issues.
topics:
Taxes, Trade, United Nations, Conservatism
