MANCHESTER, N.H.— Many skeptics continue to question whether
Rudy Giuliani is serious about making a run for the White House,
but it was abundantly clear on Saturday that he had come to
Manchester for more than the sub-freezing temperatures.
Addressing over 500 activists at the New Hampshire Republican
Party’s annual meeting as part of a two-day swing through the
state, Giuliani sketched the broad outlines of what looks like a
presidential run. Sounding at times like a motivational speaker,
Giuliani cautioned against cynicism and pessimism in the wake of
November’s election results and challenges in the ongoing War on
Terror. The message especially resonated with the audience in this
critical primary state, where the Republican Party just lost
control of both chambers of the legislature for the first time
since the 1870s.
“The best way we remain safe and we retain our freedom…is
remaining on offense, remaining strong and not becoming weak in a
time of pressure,” Giuliani said in a line that drew the biggest
applause from the crowd at the Palace Theater.
In a preview of his emerging campaign theme — “Proven
Leadership” — Giuliani vowed that “when I promise you things, if I
do, when I do, as I do, I’ll promise them because I’ve done them
before.”
Drawing on his background transforming New York City as mayor,
he elaborated that, “When I say to you that we should reduce taxes
to stimulate an economy, I’ll say it to you
because I did it, and I saw it work. When I say we have to bring
peace and security…I’ll say that to you
because I saw that happen in New York, and I made it happen. I did
it.”
While that is all well and good, the question on the minds of
all political observers is whether the adoration Giuliani earned as
a successful mayor and inspired leader on September 11 will
translate into victories in Republican primaries in which social
views often play a dominant role.
In the speech, Giuliani gave some early clues as to how he may
handle the biggest obstacle facing his candidacy. He emphasized the
“basic core principles” that Republicans agree on — individual
freedom, fiscal responsibility, and an aggressive war on terrorism
— and argued that nobody will agree with a candidate 100 percent
of the time. Rather than reverse himself on hot button issues such
as abortion and gay rights, Giuliani seems likely to argue that in
these perilous times it is more important to elect the best leader
than to apply rigorous litmus tests on individual issues.
Whether such a strategy will ultimately prove successful remains
to be seen, but those pundits who write off Giuliani’s chances
would have gotten a different impression talking with active New
Hampshire Republicans who listened to the former mayor’s
speech.
“I’d be classified as a social conservative, pro-gun,
anti-abortion, all of that, but Giuliani gave a great speech,” said
Paul Mirski, a former state representative from a Grafton district
who was defeated in November’s Democratic tidal wave. “I think the
Republicans, including me, could probably follow him and support
him for the presidency.”
Kevin Smith of Litchfield, who works for the state’s division of
juvenile justice, volunteered for the Giuliani campaign even though
he considers himself more socially conservative than the former
mayor.
“I think he’s going to appeal to conservative Republicans more
than people think he’s going to,” Smith said. “A lot of friends in
my conservative circles are also supporting Giuliani…Like Rudy
said, you’re not going to agree with every candidate 100 percent of
the time. I think on the issues that matter most to people, growing
the economy, healthcare, fighting the War on Terror, putting people
to work…he’s very conservative.”
Tom Kaczynski Jr., a party delegate, came to the meeting with
his father from Wakefield, New Hampshire. Both of them are pro-life
conservatives who had intended to support Mitt Romney, but after
hearing Giuliani speak, they’re not so sure.
“I thought that was a really inspiring speech he gave today, and
I know from personal experience doing business in New York how he
cleaned that city up during his reign as mayor,” said Kaczynski
Jr., who is in the poultry business with his father. “On September
11 there was an attack on us. The man was right there, he saw some
of his friends dying, and he persevered.”
His father said that “Before today, I had no opinion on
Giuliani, and he impressed me.”
To be sure, not everybody was wowed by “America’s Mayor.” Cliff
Newton, a former state representative, described the speech as just
“okay,” saying that he saw Romney speak in September, and found him
more energized.
Gary Hopper, a former state representative who is still
politically active, took issue with Giuliani’s prescription for the
Republican Party.
“The broad tent that Giuliani speaks of is what got us into
trouble to begin with,” Hopper said. “The reason we lost is because
the Second Amendment people, the conservatives, the pro-life
people, the people who will hold signs for you on a cold November
day were gone, they stayed home.”
New Hampshire voters are used to getting a lot of face time with
individual candidates and they pride themselves on closely
examining all of the contenders before making up their minds. Most
people in attendance on Saturday remain uncommitted, but even those
who support other candidates acknowledged Giuliani’s potential in
the state, especially given that New Hampshire has an open primary
system that allows independents to vote for candidates in either
party.
Independents helped propel John McCain to victory in the Granite
State in 2000, and he has maintained a solid organization here. His
exploratory committee hosted a post-meeting reception at the nearby
Merrimack Restaurant featuring Utah Governor Jon Huntsman. However,
a lot has changed in seven years years, with indications that
McCain has lost support among independents, while campaign finance
reform has rankled conservatives. Romney, meanwhile, has
aggressively hired talent in the state and locked up key
endorsements.
Thomas Rath, the just departed Republican National Committeeman
from New Hampshire, has already endorsed Romney. But he conceded
that Giuliani “has a brand. He has a pre-sell,” referring to the
aura that has surrounded Giuliani since the September 11 attacks.
“People haven’t forgotten that. He will get a longer look than some
might, because of how people perceive him. That will get him in the
door, into the living room, but then he has to sell.”
Should Giuliani ever make it to the White House, this may go
down as the weekend that he morphed into a presidential
candidate.
Manchester Mayor Frank Giunta, who met with Giuliani privately
before the address, said Giuliani didn’t disclose to him whether he
had made a decision to run, but observed that “it certainly sounds
like he’ll be back.”
