By John Tabin on 1.3.07 @ 12:08AM
Brave informed predictions for the New Year.
Another New Year, another new batch of predictions. Ronald
Bailey, William Safire*, and a raft of NRO-niks have bravely made their
forecasts. But what about those scenarios that no one is predicting
-- the ones that may be unlikely, but are not at all impossible?
Things like...
An Economic Shock. The Wall Street Journal's panel of 60
economists is optimistic about 2007. So is Safire, who writes
that the "Dow Jones industrials will... soar to 15,000 before
ending the year around 14,000." Bailey predicts that the "The price
of a barrel of oil will fall below $50"; along similar lines,
Safire predicts a "plunge in oil income" for Iran.
Let's hope all that is true. But the global economy is dependent
on unpredictable variables, from geopolitics to weather. A
well-placed bomb in Saudi Arabia or Venezuela can cause instant
pain at the pump, in turn stunting growth.
Galloping Dark Horses. Everyone assumes that we
know, at minimum, the general contours of the presidential contest
to come. Hillary Clinton's dominance is foretold by Kathryn Jean
Lopez ("The Dems will not escape Hillary Clinton") and William
Safire ("Year-end polls of likely primary voters will have
in the lead among Democrats... Clinton"). Barack Obama will falter,
if you believe Cliff May ("The Obama surge will fizzle") and John
J. Miller ("Obama will commit an embarrassing gaffe"); he'll soar
if you believe Bailey ("Obama will be the presidential nominee for
the Democratic Party. This will become clearer throughout 2007").
Miller and Safire both see McCain remaining the frontrunner on the
Republican side.
But there's always a chance that some below-the-radar candidate
will suddenly and inexplicably catch a wave. Howard Dean is the
obvious example from 2003, but there was also a boomlet that year
for Wesley Clark. This year, it could be John Edwards or Mitt
Romney or even (why not?) Joe Biden or Duncan Hunter. And here's
the kicker: There's no reason to assume that the sudden
frontrunners of 2007 will have any success in 2008.
An Iraq Breakthrough. Most people look at Iraq
and, using the same prognostication technique that has worked in
years past, more or less project forward from the current picture.
Andrew Stuttaford believes "the war in Iraq will drag on with a
clear resolution no more visible at the end of the year than the
beginning." John Derbyshire writes that "Iraqi Sunnis will become
yet more reluctant to be ruled by Iraqi Shias; Iraqi Shias will
become yet more reluctant to be ruled by Iraqi Sunnis; and
partition will become the conventional wisdom." Safire, the most
boldly optimistic forecaster, predicts that "Iraq will be... on the
road to shaky democracy with [the] insurgency weakening."
No one is so bold as to predict that the war will take a
dramatic turn one way or another -- but it might. There are
rumblings in Washington of a troop surge, and in Baghdad of a
unified moderate government. Who knows? There
may be nothing but disaster ahead, but it may also be a
surprisingly happy new year.
Happy New Year.
*Though Safire is semi-retired, he still returns to the op-ed
page at year's end for his "Office Pool" column, something I
overlooked last year.
topics:
Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Iraq, Iran, Oil
