The American Spectator

p> WARNER SOUNDS br> Two Republican Senate races to begin watching for the 2008 cycle are in Virginia and New Hampshire, where Sen. John Warner and Sen. John Sununu are facing similar challenges: a changing political environment in their states. /p>

Both New Hampshire and Virginia are increasingly taking on stronger tinges of blue, and increasingly creating new challenges for the Republican Party during an election cycle that initially appears to be even more challenging than the 2006 cycle.

Warner’s Virginia seat was thought to be a safe one, but with victory by Democrat Jim Webb — some would say it was more of a loss by Sen. George Allen — Warner is now uncertain of whether he’s willing to put himself through what is sure to be a bruising battle.

“It isn’t that Allen lost, it’s how he lost, that has to trouble Warner,” says a Republican political consultant who has worked in Virginia. “The far-left wing of the party was so aggressive in Virginia with guerrilla tactics, Web attack ads and blog posts, that Warner has to look at all that and wonder if it’s worth that kind of fight. He’s had it comparatively easy in the past few races. Does he want to fight for what amounts to a minority seat?”

Warner may be looking at having to take on former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, whom he defeated in 1996 in what’s proved to be by far the closest of his re-election runs, and this was back when Mark Warner ran a pretty straightforward liberal. He is now thought to have looked at the Webb victory as an opportunity to examine an alternative path to national prominence over a second tier presidential candidacy.

Democrat Warner is said to be keeping his options open for 2008. He’s kept his leadership PAC up and running, sent out a campaign style “holiday” card to supporters, and done some statewide polling in the past three months to gauge interest in his running for the Senate seat. He is also believed to be looking at options again for a presidential bid now that moderate Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh has pulled out of the race.

“I’m not sure that Warner believes that the current field presents the voters with the most complete candidate to pick from,” says a Democrat operative. “Clinton and Obama both have flaws. The only candidate with some comparisons to Warner is [former Iowa Gov. Tom] Vilsack, and Warner probably has a slightly higher name recognition nationally to him. He’d be smart to look at that run again.”

Sununu faces similar challenges: a changing electorate and state and targeting by the national Democrat Party, but retirement isn’t an option for him, at least not one he is pondering.