The American Spectator

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Playing With Numbers

12.18.06 @ 12:01AM

ODDS MAN OUT
Re: Philip Klein's Don't Look Back:

John Mueller, author of Overblown: How Politicians and the Terrorism Industry Inflate National Security Threats, and Why We Believe Them, is not just any professor at Ohio State. He holds the Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies at the Mershon Center. If you hear reports of earth tremors in the Central Ohio area, don't be concerned about impending earthquakes. It's just Woody rolling over in his grave at Union Cemetery.
-- Jay Hoster
Columbus, Ohio

Mr. Mueller uses a very inappropriate analogy when he compares terrorist attacks to asteroid "attacks." The fact that we don't seek out and destroy every asteroid we can find after one hits us doesn't embolden asteroids to redirect themselves to pummel the Earth. On the other hand, as bin Laden noted in his 1996 fatwa, not responding does embolden terrorists. By not responding the probabilities change, for the worse. They will continue doing so until we respond with the appropriate response (overwhelming force, in my opinion.)
-- James M. Mulch
Grand Island, NY

With certainty, it's fair to each of us are risk managers, whether we believe it or not or want to do it or not, since risks cannot be eliminated.

Applying the professor's statistical view of that nuisance called terrorism and his novel approach to de-emphasizing its associated risks, perhaps we should reconsider our view of airline travel, in general, as well as fire prevention and fighting. After all, it's been suggested that the probability of dying from airplane crashes or by fire and flames is, respectively, very, very low or just low.

Maybe we can save some money by cutting back on or even curtailing safety rules for airliners and air travel, research on innovative methods to enhance safety and preventive maintenance on the planes -- or reducing or de-emphasizing fire-fighting methods, prevention measures and departments?
-- C. Kenna Amos
Princeton, West Virginia

While I agree with the thrust of Mr. Klein's article I must take exception to his use of statistics. His describing the odds of a person dieing in a terrorist attack as 1 in 80,000, presumably Mr. Mueller's assertion, "roughly the same odds as getting killed by an asteroid," are not given attribution to Mr. Mueller so I can only assume the analogy is his. There is a rather large problem with his numbers. Assuming that he means 1 in 80,000 in any given year, if the year is 2006 and the world population estimate is 6.5 billion, then we should be having asteroid caused deaths on the order of 8,125,000 annually.

I believe the last asteroid strike on this planet was perhaps the Tunguska event in 1908. I'm sure far less than 8 million people perished then. If I'm in error in what Mr. Klein was saying I'm sure I'm not alone, but if I'm not then off handed comments such as these cause anyone with a calculator to be able to disprove, and dismiss, not just his assertion but his entire argument.
-- Keith H. Lepley
Davenport, Florida

Philip Klein replies:
The statistics and the analogy did come from Mueller, which is why I began my sentence by writing, "In his presentation, Mueller asserted..." I apologize if that attribution wasn't clear enough. Also, Mueller was discussing the lifetime odds, so that makes it a much more complicated equation than simply dividing 6.5 billion by 80,000.

Mueller also elaborates on the point on page 2 of his book:

Astronomer Alan Harris has calculated that at present rates, the lifetime probability that a resident of the globe will die at the hands of international terrorists is 1 in 80,000, about the same likelihood that one would die over the same interval from the impact on the earth of an especially ill-directed asteroid or comet.

Right or wrong, it seems that Mr. Lepley's beef is with Mueller and Harris -- not me.

LIGHTS OUT
Re: Rob Bradley's The Gore Who Stole Christmas:

If you want to stay awake nights think of this: Al the dummy (is there any other word for him) Gore nearly became President of the United States of America!
-- Bob Montrose
Fort Lee, New Jersey

So who in their right mind listens to Al Gore anyway? Seems to me that this guy is at least one sandwich short of a picnic and is operating on only about 12 ounces to the pound. Can you say, "Twilight Zone," boys and girls?
-- Jim L
East Sandwich, Massachusetts

Why don't we all make a deal with our Resident Alarmist. We will give up our garish Christmas displays (outside lights, inflatable back lit Nativity scenes, Christmas tree lights etc...) if ALGORE sells his 2 Tennessee estates, his posh Georgetown Condo, and divest himself of all his Occidental Petroleum shares. Further, ALGORE must refuse any mode of travel that requires JP4 jet fuel (i.e. private Gulfstream jet service). Lastly, for this agreement to go into effect ALGORE must trade in any vehicles which get less than 50mpg in the city, and bicycle his way around Tennessee and the Beltway.

This entire charade of alarmism is becoming more and more surreal. We have multi-millionaires flying around the world in expensive private jets giving lectures to people whose worth is 1/1000th their own about cutting back their consumption. We also have nations who made a big deal about joining the Kyoto protocols; yet, these same nations haven't even come close to meeting their CO2 goals. Like the Yankees and the salary cap, the carbon credits mean nothing.

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