Applying for a Russian visa is no light-hearted affair. The
Russians want to know the (full) name and phone number of your
supervisor at your previous two places of employment. They ask for
the names and phone numbers of where you went to school (“all
educational institutions you ever attended, except high schools”).
Moreover, the application demands that you list “all countries you
have visited in the last ten years and indicate the year of visit.”
You’re also expected to list the charities, “civil” organizations,
and professional groups to which you’ve belonged or even
contributed.
There’s a list of questions about whether you’re a convict,
nutcase, druggie, or disease carrier. If you want to stay more than
three months, you have to take an AIDS test. The Russians also want
to know if you’ve served in the military, fought in a war, or “have
any specialized skills, training or experience related to fire-arms
and explosives or to nuclear, biological or chemical
activities?”
But there’s one bit of good news. At Russia’s visa office in
Washington, D.C., at least, there’s no line.
When I showed up one Friday with my application, I went straight
to the window. When I came back in the afternoon to pick up my
visa, there were just four of us waiting for the office to
reopen.
The visa room is minuscule. Two chairs sit behind a small table.
If you filled the rest of the room, the crowd would number about 20
standing shoulder to shoulder. There just aren’t a lot of Americans
seeking to jet off to Russia.
It’s too bad, really, since Russia is a fascinating nation with
a venerable culture and many magnificent sites to see. But after
surviving chaotic and whirlwind economic and political changes
since the fall of the Berlin Wall, Moscow appears to be moving in a
more authoritarian, nationalistic direction.
Whether or not President Vladimir Putin is busy poisoning every
Russian expatriate who’s ever breathed a critical word about him,
the central political authorities are exerting themselves
domestically: local elective officials are being appointed,
businessmen are being intimidated, and independent voices are being
suppressed. Russia remains a world away from Soviet communism, but
it also appears to be moving away from liberal democracy. Russia’s
economic recovery centers around high oil prices, rather than
market-oriented reforms. As energy prices soften, entrepreneurial
opportunities for foreigners may shrink.
A FEW BLOCKS AWAY in Washington is the Chinese visa office. While
the Russian operation is located in an embassy building, the
Chinese have leased commercial space.
China offers foreigners a warmer welcome. The Chinese charge
half as much, $50 for a normal application, and less than a third
as much, $80 compared to $300, for same day service. The
application is simpler, with one page instead of two. Surprisingly,
there are no — nada — obnoxious, silly, and unnecessary
questions. (I mean, what does where you went to college three
decades ago have to do with visiting the country in 2006?) The
visas also last longer — being valid for six months rather than
one month.
The Chinese have a genuine waiting room. Two or three dozen
chairs are set in rows. Grabbing a number is a must; when I
foolishly arrived on a Monday I found a mob scene, standing room
only. The wait was more than an hour. The security guard suggested
coming on Wednesdays, when the delay typically was shortest. At
least the pick-up line moved more quickly.
The activity of China’s visa office mirrors the dynamism of
China’s society. China, too, is filled with fascinating
destinations, and possesses a more exotic air than does Russia. The
latter was part of Europe for more than a century prior to the Cold
War. China’s culture is more ancient and more different than
anything most Americans have seen.
But the People’s Republic of China has something more to offer.
Unlike Russia, the PRC is an energy consumer rather than a
producer. China is growing faster, however, with its rapid
expansion coming from new manufacturing enterprises rather than old
natural resource deposits.
The latter are valuable, but finite: many Russian oil fields are
long past peak production and even newer sites will top out in the
next few years. There are more resources to be discovered, but
Russia is relying so heavily on its oil industry because most of
its industrial sectors are so weak. Such dependence is likely to be
to Moscow’s long-term detriment.
China’s economic future, in contrast, almost certainly is
brighter, since the Communist Party remains committed, despite its
desire to hang on to power, to market-oriented liberalization. The
only seeming limit to the PRC’s development is the extent of
Chinese brainpower, which is substantial. There are still things
that could go wrong for China — the banking system is overextended
and unreformed, nationalism could overwhelm economic good sense,
the shift from rural to urban life has created social unrest, and
future political developments remain uncertain. However, Chinese
entrepreneurship has been released by the collapse of Maoism and is
unlikely to be easily confined again.
FINALLY, CHINA IS THE MORE important geopolitical player. Moscow
possesses nuclear weapons and energy resources, useful but limited
tools. Moscow can provide aid to or cause trouble for America in
various international forums; still, it now is at most a regional
rather than a global leader. Russia’s influence is waning and that
trend seems likely to continue.
In contrast, Beijing’s star is ascending. China possesses the
world’s largest population, a rapidly growing economy, increased
influence throughout the Asia-Pacific, new investments in Africa
and Latin America, and more.
The U.S.-China relationship also is more important than
America’s ties to Russia. The former is characterized by numerous
areas of potential cooperation as well as significant potential
pitfalls. If North Korea is restrained, it will be as a result of
joint U.S. and Chinese efforts. If East Asia, the globe’s most
economically dynamic region, enjoys political stability, it will be
because Washington and Beijing have reached a modus vivendi.
There once were two international poles: the U.S. and Russia.
Despite manifold challenges, America remains the globe’s dominant
power.
The old Soviet Union, however, is long gone and Russia, despite
its recent oil-driven revival, represents the past. If Moscow
proves unwilling to accept the challenges and opportunities that
arise naturally from capitalist and democratic reforms, it risks
becoming an international backwater.
China is not yet a superpower, but it has embraced sufficient
liberal changes to become the likeliest new pole in the
international order. What that means for the people of Asia and
elsewhere remains to be seen. But the changing global balance helps
explain the dynamics of the two visa offices, so close in geography
but so different in operation.
