Over the weekend, Senator John McCain announced the formation of
an exploratory committee to consider another run for president.
Although the odds are against it, the committee should tell him not
to run. A host of issues that are sure to play large in the GOP
primaries work against the Senator. Worst of all, McCain now faces
a huge obstacle in Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack.
On taxes, always a GOP staple, McCain’s record provides unending
fodder for his opponents. Although he recently supported an
extension of the Bush tax cuts, he opposed all of them when they
were first proposed, at times sounding like the ultimate class
warrior. “I cannot in good conscience support a tax cut in which so
many of the benefits go to the most fortunate among us at the
expense of middle-class Americans who need tax relief,” he declared
in 2001.
What was he thinking drafting an immigration bill with Oh Great
One, Ted Kennedy? Expect pictures showing McCain and Kennedy together in
the commercials his GOP opponents run saying he supports amnesty
for illegals.
Then there is his 2000 remark about evangelicals being “agents
of intolerance” and “corrupting influences.” Perhaps his recent
make-up session with Jerry Falwell has undone most of the damage.
On the other hand, social conservatives can have long memories.
And if those weren’t enough, there are his posturing on global
warming and, of course, the infamous McCain-Feingold campaign
finance law. Ultimately, McCain has handed his primary opponents a
lot of choice ammunition to use against him.
However, the worst news for McCain is the announcement last week
that Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack plans on running for the Democratic
nomination for President. Vilsack’s announcement means that most
Democrats will skip the Iowa Caucuses. Back in 1992, all Democratic
candidates ignored the caucuses when Iowa Senator Tom Harkin jumped
in the race. This time around the only candidate who will have even
a chance at challenging Vilsack in Iowa is Hillary Clinton. But the
political structure and loyalty that Vilsack has built up in the
state make even her odds long ones.
Vilsack’s entry hurts McCain because, as in 1992, an
uncompetitive race in Iowa will make New Hampshire the first real
contest for the Democrats. A host of Democratic candidates will be
running in New Hampshire, making the Democratic ballot much more
appealing to the independents who can participate in the Granite
State’s open primary. Thus, many of the independents who
contributed to McCain’s stunning 2000 victory in the New Hampshire
Republican primary will instead be voting in the Democratic
one.
Adding to McCain’s likely woes in New Hampshire is the
Republican contest in the Iowa Caucuses will be competitive. The
Iowa Caucus will winnow out some of the less competitive GOP
candidates, making the Republican primary in New Hampshire less
interesting than the Democratic one. This will give independents
even more incentive to participate in the Democratic Primary,
further reducing the number of McCain’s supporters.
In 2000, McCain brilliantly positioned himself as the spoiler to
the George W. Bush juggernaut. This time, however, his opposition
will be ready for him, and the dynamics of the race are much less
favorable. McCain should hope that his exploratory committee
returns with a negative recommendation. For in 2008, the Straight
Talk Express will quickly run out of gas.
David Hogberg is a writer living in the Washington
area. He also hosts his own website, Hog
Haven.
