Going into this election I feel very confident. Specifically,
I’m confident that my perfect
prediction
record from 2004 will not survive this evening. Three Senate races
— Missouri, Montana, and Virginia — are very difficult to call as
the races are very close and neither side seems to have a decisive
advantage. Thus, the chances of getting a race wrong are very
high.
If you wish to see which races I have taken off the competitive
list, please see my previous column
on the Senate races. Otherwise, let’s get to it.
Arizona: The best Democrat Jim Pederson has
been able to do in the last two weeks is get within 5 points of
Senator Jon Kyl. The Democratic wave will have to be a tsunami for
Pederson to win. Republican Hold.
Connecticut: You can expect the Netroots to
keep crowing about how they defeated Senator Joe Lieberman in the
primary of 2006. It will seem silly, since Lieberman will beat Ned
Lamont in the general election. But then, when have Netroots ever
not been rather silly? Lieberman
Wins.
Maryland: Were this 2002 or 2004, I would
predict a win for Michael Steele. He’s a great candidate and has
won the endorsement of some prominent black leaders in
Maryland. He’s even close in a few polls. But this is a Democratic
year, and Maryland is a blue state. I wouldn’t be all that
surprised if Steele pulls off an upset, but my money is on Ben
Cardin. Democratic Hold.
Michigan: Would Mike Bouchard have made a good
Senator? We’ll never know. Debbie Stabenow has never trailed in any
polls and most of the recent ones have her leading by double
digits. Democratic Hold.
Minnesota: Republicans will spend the winter
wondering what went wrong here. An open seat with a good candidate
in Rep. Mark Kennedy. Yet relative unknown Amy Klobuchar is about
to become the next Senator from the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
Democratic Hold.
Missouri: This is the toughest race to call.
After running a shameful ad with an Iraq War veteran making an
unsubstantiated claim about waiting six months for medical
treatment, Democratic State Auditor Claire McCaskill should have
been dead in the water. But after running the even more shameful
Michael J. Fox ad, McCaskill looks to have regained momentum. If
she wins, you can bet that Democrats will repeat such cynical and
disgusting tactics for years to come. Yet, it is still close, and
Jim Talent may yet triumph. Unfortunately, he is under 50% in most
of the polls, dangerous territory for an incumbent. Thus, I’m
putting this down as a Democratic
Gain.
Montana: While Democrat Jon Tester has led in
almost every poll since April, Senator Conrad Burns has gained
momentum in the last week, making the race suddenly very tight. One
recent poll even shows a tie. However, Burns has never broken 50%
in any poll this year, a very bad place to be as a Republican in a
Democratic year. Burns’s momentum may still help him prevail, but
I’m betting on a Tester win. Democratic
Gain.
New Jersey: Tom Kean, Jr. is still within
striking distance here. A GOP pickup is possible — but not likely.
Bob Menendez has led in every poll but one (which was a tie) since
mid-October. In most other states, Menendez would be reeling from
corruption accusations. But for New Jersey voters, corruption is
like a bowel movement. It stinks, but it is a daily occurrence that
no one cares about. Democratic Hold.
Ohio: Picture in your mind a big airplane
engulfed in flames taking a nosedive toward the ground. That is the
Ohio GOP this year. And Senator Mike DeWine is a passenger. Sherrod
Brown — a.k.a. Howard Metzenbaum, Jr. — will be the next Senator
from Ohio. Democratic Gain.
Pennsylvania: Any Senator who has this exchange
with Barbara Boxer over abortion deserves to be in the Senate in
perpetuity. Unfortunately, Pennsylvania voters appear to disagree.
While Rick Santorum was closing the gap in early October, his
momentum stalled and he never restarted it. Bob Casey now leads by
double digits in most polls, suggesting that his “non-entity”
strategy was a smart one. Democratic
Gain.
Rhode Island: A recent Mason-Dixon poll gave
Republican-In-Name-Only Lincoln Chafee a one-point lead. My best
guess is that it is a fluke, as every other poll since late August
has shown Sheldon Whitehouse ahead. In terms of policy,
Whitehouse’s victory won’t make a big difference. In terms of who
controls the Senate, it will. Democratic
Gain.
Tennessee: This is the GOP’s one bright spot
this year. After being neck-in-neck with Harold Ford, Jr. for most
of the year, Mayor Bob Corker is peaking at the right time. He has
been pulling away from Ford these last two weeks, with most polls
showing Corker getting 50% or better of the vote.
Republican Hold.
Virginia: As a Republican, you know your
campaign has been ham-handed when your party is reduced to criticizing your Democratic opponent for not
being feminist enough. Senator George Allen has done just about
everything to lose this race, and recent polls suggest that he
will. An amendment to the state constitution banning gay marriage
may drive enough social conservatives to the polls to save Allen.
But with Allen’s terrible campaign and this being a good year for
Democrats, the smart money is on Jim Webb. Democratic
Gain.
Washington: Stick a fork in Mike McGavick.
Senator Maria Cantwell wins this one going away.
Democratic Hold.
Democrats 51, Republicans 49 — can you say Senate Majority
Leader Harry Reid? If that triggers your gag reflex, don’t feel too
bad. As I noted, Missouri, Montana, and Virginia are very hard to
call, and if any one of them goes against my prediction, the GOP
will hang on to the Senate.
Final thought: About two years ago it looked like the
Republicans had an outside chance of getting a veto-proof 60
Senators. Now they are struggling just to maintain their majority.
How disappointing.
David Hogberg is a writer living in the Washington
area. He also hosts his own website, Hog
Haven.
