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This article is one of the few I have seen that attempts to bring realism to the elections tomorrow….
In reading the tealeaves, it appears the Dems should legitimately be looking at 24 pickups give or take 2 seats in the house and at most 1-2 in the Senate. This even looks optimistic if you only use polls started on Friday and completed today. With the 3 open seats polling almost dead even. It almost puts me into a panic if I were a Dem.
Additionally, the ignorance towards the key stat so far in the races. In the Senate, the Rep seats are moving along the chart to the right… and the Dem seats appear to be moving to the right as well. The fact that Chafee and Burns are in a tie, which even last Monday would have seemed farfetched, should be the signal of the bow wave. The Reps seem to have placed all but PA-I in the tossup category, and the Dems have had less numbers of for sure seats. The Reps seem to now have 47 locked down seats with 2 more as likely. The Dems have 44 locked down seats with 7 somewhere towards dead even.
My only other take is that the liberal media is making a lot out of this Democrat (democratic is a process not a political affiliation) surge against the Reps. But have downplayed the seats that the Dems may lose. If Mike Steele pulls out MD (I’d bet a lot of this is happening), it’s all over for the Dems in the Senate
p>Lastly, let’s say the Dems fail to even take the House. How can they have fumbled 2 “gimmee” elections in 2 years? If ever there were easy wins it was ‘04 and ‘06. If they fail to even get the House by whatever margin, they are done donuts. br> —