Political scientists use a number of different models to
understand voter behavior. Two such models are the “prospective
voter” and the “retrospective voter.” Prospective voters look at
what candidates are promising to do in the future. Retrospective
voters are the “What have you done for me lately?” voters — i.e.,
did the incumbent pass laws that the voter likes.
Obviously, most voters are a mix of those two models. As a
result, incumbent politicians, especially those of the majority
party, need to develop strategies that appeal to both prospective
and retrospective voters. I imagine that most political scientists
using these models to analyze the Republicans this year would come
to the conclusion, “The GOP sucks!”
First, ask yourself, what are House and Senate Republicans
promising going forward? If you have to think real hard, it’s
because the GOP isn’t really offering much. By and large, GOP
candidates aren’t telling us what they will do in 2007-2008 should
Republicans retain control of Congress. There is no common agenda
of, say, tax cuts, spending reductions, entitlement and immigration
reform, etc. Rather, their message amounts to what one could call a
“negative agenda.” In other words, “Don’t vote for the Democrats
because they will be worse than we are.” Not exactly an inspiring
message.
While the GOP is lousy on the prospective side, it is arguably
worse on the retrospective side. Congressional Republicans don’t
have many accomplishments to run on. Let’s run down the list of
failures and missed opportunities:
Iraq War: President Bush should have appointed
the Baker Commission shortly after he won reelection. Further,
Congressional Republicans should have pushed Bush to do this. Such
a commission would have given Bush and Republicans some cover for
taking a new direction in Iraq — possibly adding new troops or
setting a time table for Iraqi troops to take over the security
function in Iraq. This would have made the Iraq War far less of a
liability for the GOP and kept the base from feeling worn out on
the issue.
Social Security Reform: While President Bush
pushed for this in early 2005, the reception it received from
Capitol Hill was less than enthusiastic. In fairness, Bush never
put forward a concrete plan that Republicans could rally around.
But Congressional GOP inaction ensured that reform never even got
off the ground.
Extending Tax Cuts: No progress at all on this.
Aside from a brief attempt at making the death-tax repeal
permanent, the GOP has done little to promote tax relief. It has
also failed to connect the Bush tax cuts to the good economy. One
can only hope that the GOP has some grand strategy to hit the
Democrats over the head with these tax cuts as their 2010
expiration date draws near.
Gay Marriage: Early in 2005, President Bush
told the Washington Post that he would not lobby Congress
hard for the Federal Marriage Amendment since there wouldn’t be
enough votes to win unless the courts overturned the Defense of
Marriage Act. This must have been a big let down for social
conservatives, as it seemed that Bush only cared about the gay
marriage issue as long as it helped to win elections. Since then,
Congress has largely dropped the matter. Thus, expect a lot of
conservative Christians to stay home tomorrow evening.
Spending Reductions: Other than a few spending
offsets in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, this has continued to be
the Congress of Drunken Sailors. Pork addicts like Ted Stevens, Don
Young and Jerry Lewis set the tone on spending for the GOP in
Congress. To fully understand this, it would be like letting Gloria
Steinem, Catharine MacKinnon, and Kim Gandy set abortion policy for
the Vatican.
EVEN WHERE THE GOP HAS GENUINE accomplishments, they have been
achieved in such a way as to sour the base. These include:
Immigration Reform: Yes, Congress passed and
President Bush signed a bill that boosts border security. But that
was only after House Republicans refused to play along with the
amnesty being pushed by the President and Republican Senators. By
refusing to make security the top priority, Bush and Senate
Republicans may have caused the conservative base to stop trusting
GOP politicians on immigration. Sad to say, it is the House
Republicans who may suffer the worst for this.
Judicial Appointments: Sure, President Bush won
the confirmations of John Roberts and Sam Alito, accomplishments to
be proud of. Yet this was sullied with the Harriet Miers fiasco,
when President Bush showed that he was willing to let cronyism
trump sound judicial policy. For their trouble, conservatives who
opposed the Miers’ nomination were panned as “sexist” by the
administration. Then, of course, there is the recurring
fecklessness of the Senate Republicans in getting conservative
jurists appointed to the lower courts. The base seems dispirited on
this issue, and who can blame it?
The old adage applies to this election: you can’t beat something
with nothing. That, however, is exactly what House and Senate
Republicans are trying to do. They have no serious achievements to
promote, and no agenda for the future. All they have to offer is,
“It will be worse with the Democrats in control.” Looking over some
old news articles, that was also the GOPs’ problem in 1986. We all
know how that turned out.
David Hogberg is a writer living in the Washington
area. He also hosts his own website, Hog
Haven.
