When Congress convenes in January of 2007, Republicans will be
elected both as Speaker of the House and as Senate Majority
Leader.
The new Republican speaker, who will not be Dennis Hastert, will
enjoy a margin of only one vote. But in the Senate, where
Republicans currently control 55 of the 100 seats and where many
pundits are now saying they teeter on the brink of losing their
majority, the GOP instead will lose no more than two seats.
And Mr. Conventional Wisdom, who is the lackey of the mainstream
media and the supposedly nonpartisan election “experts,” again will
have enough egg on his face to make omelets that feed
multitudes.
Let’s examine the Senate first, because it is easier to
understand. It boils down to this: Democrats are trying to seize
seats from states that traditionally vote Republican. Even in a bad
year for Republicans, it is difficult for Democrats to overcome the
triple advantages of incumbency, superior fundraising, and a
population that usually leans rightward. Not only that, but the
national economy — which, when it is strong, usually boosts
incumbents tremendously — is arguably the strongest in the entire
history of the world. (More on that a bit later.)
On the presidential level, Virginia and Montana almost always
vote Republican, Missouri and Ohio usually do, and Tennessee does
so more often than not. Pennsylvania, a state that tends to lean
only a little leftward, has not elected a Democrat in a regularly
scheduled Senate election since the 1970s. And in Rhode Island, a
very liberal state, Democrats must overcome a habit of supporting
three different generations of the (liberal Republican) Chafee
family for statewide office.
Meanwhile, Democrats this year are defending several seats of
their own that, except for the national anti-Republican trend,
feature unique circumstances that should make them nervous.
Maryland has been trending a bit more conservative anyway, and
this is the second straight election cycle where Maryland black
leaders are expressing a serious dissatisfaction with the
Democratic Party. With Republican nominee Michael Steele being a
highly charismatic black man, Democrats have reason to fear his
inroads into a normally Democratic constituency.
Washington state and Michigan, meanwhile, feature two of the
least accomplished, least powerful members of the Senate —
respectively, Maria Cantwell and Debbie Stabenow. Many Washington
state voters are still sore that the Democrats snatched the
governorship two years ago in a still-disputed election, and many
Michiganders are unhappy with what is arguably the worst state
economy in the whole nation, which has occurred under Democratic
state elected leaders.
And in New Jersey, appointed Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez
is seen as ethically challenged, while Republican challenger Tom
Kean Jr. is the namesake of the former governor who is probably the
state’s single most popular living (ex-)politician.
All of which means that under normal circumstances, Democrats
this year would be battling uphill for the Senate. The abnormal
circumstance of a highly unpopular “Republican war” does shift the
odds in the Democrats’ favor, but not so much that the other
Republican advantages are irrelevant.
As this is being written, evidence points to serious
pro-Republican trends in the races in Tennessee, Montana, Maryland
and, catching up from way behind, Rhode Island. Missouri’s superb
GOP Sen. Jim Talent is hanging tough; Virginia’s George Allen
should edge past his opponent, the Washington Post; and
Pennsylvania’s conservative hero Rick Santorum is famous for being
a strong closer while Democrat Bob Casey Jr. is known for having
blown a huge lead in a previous statewide race.
So, to repeat, when the smoke clears, Republicans will have
suffered no more than a net loss of two Senate seats.
NOW LET’S LOOK AT THE HOUSE. Before several resignations created
open seats, Republicans had held 232 seats to the Democrats’ (plus
Socialist Bernie Sanders) 203. Pundits in the past week have been
falling all over themselves to predict not just that Democrats
would gain the net 15 seats needed for the majority, but a much
larger number in an overwhelming “wave” election. And respected
analyst Stuart Rothenberg is forecasting a partisan shift of 34-40
(!).
Balderdash.
Amidst all the liberal media’s ill-disguised euphoria about
horrible “generic” ballot numbers for Republicans, too many people
are ignoring the fact that, just as in the Senate races, the
Democrats are fighting on Republican terrain. Computer-aided
gerrymandering has created a plethora of GOP-leaning seats.
Incumbents still enjoy the advantages of having provided years of
constituent service (not to mention pork, rancid though
conservatives justly might think it). Most Republican incumbents
also have enjoyed a big cash edge. And even in a year in which
congressional approval ratings are at horrendously low levels,
recent polls show that more than 60 percent of the public still
approves of the job of their own representatives. Finally,
by general agreement it is acknowledged that the overall quality of
Democratic candidate recruitment this year was no better than
fair-to-middling. There are more than a few races in which the same
unimpressive Democratic candidates who lost big two years ago are
challenging the same Republican incumbents who now are rated as
endangered. Because the challengers are less than impressive,
though, voters may in the end balk at voting for them over the
better known and personally liked incumbents.
The fact is that the American electorate leans center-right, not
center-left. Just last week a new CNN poll showed that 54 percent
of Americans think government is too big and tries to do too much,
versus only 37 percent who felt the opposite. And polls
consistently show more Americans hold right-leaning cultural views
than not. As the center-right party, therefore, the Republicans
still enjoy an edge on the basic level of the electorate’s overall
world-view.
Penultimately, there are two GOP advantages that help
Republicans fight against the otherwise toxic political
environment. The first is that the public (according to a recent
poll) is finally beginning to realize just how strong the economy
is. With unemployment at a near-incredible low of 4.4 percent,
inflation tame at 2.3 percent, personal net worth up, wages
starting to rise, interest rates at levels that are by historical
standards quite solid, home values at near-record highs, home
ownership at near-record highs, the stock market at record highs
while the percentage of the public owning stock is at near-record
highs (more than 50%), and gasoline prices dropping, the economy is
a true modern marvel — especially when compared to the stagnant
economies of western Europe, with some of those countries suffering
unemployment rates above 10 percent.
Second, there is Karl Rove’s vaunted organizational genius and
the unparalleled voter turnout machine that he and Republican
National Committee chairman Ken Mehlman have built. In close race
after close race, that turnout machine should prove the difference
in favor of Republican candidates.
Finally, for both the House and the Senate, the events of the
past week have all broken in favor of Republicans. First came the
idiotic slur against our troops by Democratic standard-bearer John
Kerry. Then came the new unemployment numbers, which are
spectacular. Then came the conviction of Saddam Hussein. And all
this on top of a New York Times story that had the
unintended (unintended by the Times, that is) consequence
of confirming that when we liberated Iraq, Saddam Hussein was
within not much more than a single, short year of achieving nuclear
fission capability.
All of this analysis, granted, has been at the macro level.
Space does not permit a race-by-race analysis, but this author has
indeed done such analysis at significant depth. That micro-analysis
confirms the macro-analysis, namely that the House hangs right in
the balance, but that it by no means will amount to an utter
wipeout of Republicans. When all is said and done, come January,
Republicans will indeed control the “people’s House” by a single
vote.
You read it here first.
