The American Spectator

Streetcar Line

Republicans Will Hold On

By Quin Hillyer on 11.6.06 @ 12:08AM

(Page 2 of 2)

The fact is that the American electorate leans center-right, not center-left. Just last week a new CNN poll showed that 54 percent of Americans think government is too big and tries to do too much, versus only 37 percent who felt the opposite. And polls consistently show more Americans hold right-leaning cultural views than not. As the center-right party, therefore, the Republicans still enjoy an edge on the basic level of the electorate's overall world-view.

Penultimately, there are two GOP advantages that help Republicans fight against the otherwise toxic political environment. The first is that the public (according to a recent poll) is finally beginning to realize just how strong the economy is. With unemployment at a near-incredible low of 4.4 percent, inflation tame at 2.3 percent, personal net worth up, wages starting to rise, interest rates at levels that are by historical standards quite solid, home values at near-record highs, home ownership at near-record highs, the stock market at record highs while the percentage of the public owning stock is at near-record highs (more than 50%), and gasoline prices dropping, the economy is a true modern marvel -- especially when compared to the stagnant economies of western Europe, with some of those countries suffering unemployment rates above 10 percent.

Second, there is Karl Rove's vaunted organizational genius and the unparalleled voter turnout machine that he and Republican National Committee chairman Ken Mehlman have built. In close race after close race, that turnout machine should prove the difference in favor of Republican candidates.

Finally, for both the House and the Senate, the events of the past week have all broken in favor of Republicans. First came the idiotic slur against our troops by Democratic standard-bearer John Kerry. Then came the new unemployment numbers, which are spectacular. Then came the conviction of Saddam Hussein. And all this on top of a New York Times story that had the unintended (unintended by the Times, that is) consequence of confirming that when we liberated Iraq, Saddam Hussein was within not much more than a single, short year of achieving nuclear fission capability.

All of this analysis, granted, has been at the macro level. Space does not permit a race-by-race analysis, but this author has indeed done such analysis at significant depth. That micro-analysis confirms the macro-analysis, namely that the House hangs right in the balance, but that it by no means will amount to an utter wipeout of Republicans. When all is said and done, come January, Republicans will indeed control the "people's House" by a single vote.

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Letter to the Editor

topics:
Environment, Iraq, Oil