Republicans will face doom in 2008. Rove’s “governing majority”
will disappear for a generation. Bush will bleed to death from a
thousand Congressional cuts. War funding will be stripped, the
minimum wage will hit twenty dollars an hour, and illegal
immigrants will hold elective office.
It’s a Nightmare on K Street, and it’s not going to happen.
This election — despite every indication to the contrary —
doesn’t matter. Sure, it might eventually cause something
significant to happen — the way a butterfly flapping its wings in
China causes a souffle to go flat in Muncie. But none of the three
possible outcomes — Republican edge, Democratic edge, and
Democratic sweep — will result in a future much different from the
others. Do not go off the deep end this Halloween season. Do not
dress up as an undead Perot voter. Don’t fear the Reaper.
THERE ARE FOUR REASONS WHY. First, the Republican majority in
Congress is already slim and discredited. There is no possible way
this lead will grow. Weak candidates will be winnowed out. A weak
leadership will likely follow. These are things thoughtful
Republican voters might want to happen anyway.
Second, Democratic gains will not quite mean liberal gains.
Democrats — particularly in the Senate — have had to put up
candidates like Harold Ford and Jim Webb who seem more conservative
than several high-profile Republicans. To get competitive, some
challengers running in GOP-held districts have lurched right on
immigration. The tenor of the times — despite Iraq — is such that
they have little choice. All the big opportunities to score against
the ruling party in competitive districts are conservative
talking points: bloated budget, profligate government, new
entitlements, porous borders, dissatisfying war.
Third, a new Democratic majority — even a significant one —
will be dead on arrival. A veto-proof majority is unthinkable; a
veto-happy President faced with legislation he hates is certain.
Bush’s willingness to embrace any bill to come out of the
Republican Congress has been woeful; if a change in this attitude
follows a change in party, conservatives in and out of Congress
will cheer. Dems in charge of committees, with old axes to grind,
will find themselves able only to grind Republican plans to a halt.
And halting the junk machine in Washington appears to be the best
anyone can hope for on any grounds — at least until ‘08.
Fourth, 2008 will be the sort of watershed election that comes
along once every 100 years. The election of 1858 has long been
forgotten. So has the election of 1978. Both party establishments
are running on fumes, and profound ideological reckonings are
waiting in the wings. Like it or not, the Hispanic vote will be
huge. Like it or not, Iraq will be huge. Like it or not, the major
issues of the day will not be resolved and will probably be worse.
Iran and North Korea are long-term problems beyond the political
power of any single administration. A border fence is only a first
step in confronting the immigration crisis. A new drug entitlement
is not even that regarding the looming Social Security crisis. Not
only are these reckonings major, they call — given present
policies — for a fight over the soul of both parties. Democrats
are starting to understand this, because they have the most to gain
in the short term from tackling their incoherence. Republicans,
too, are now well aware that a conversation about honesty toward
first principles is mandatory before 2008.
This is the natural result of how Bush has governed — that is,
not as a conservative. If Republicans lose this time around by a
little, the conversation will ratchet up, as it should anyway. If
Republicans lose by a lot, the conversation will get serious fast
— as it should anyway.
THE MESSAGE, THEN, isn’t don’t worry, be happy. Do worry — but not
over this election. Go about your regular business: if you like
your local candidate, vote for your local candidate. If you don’t,
don’t. If your conscience demands a protest vote, or a protest
non-vote, rest assured that your action or inaction will not derail
the course of history. The table is set on a suitably monumental
scale that what happens this November is extraordinarily unlikely
to change any of the bedrock realities of political life in this
decade.
This should come as a relief on more than a personal level.
Republicans and conservatives have the luxury of blowing an
election. The moment should be seized as an opportunity. The clock
is ticking. The issues are profound. There are international crises
to spare. Consistent, coherent, and compelling political positions
must be staked out now in order to be well defended later.
In this moment, when the prospect of culling the national
majority is upon the GOP, everything about the Republican Party
and, indeed, the federal government ought to be leaner and meaner.
With a little foresight, the majority party can head off a future
that’s all skin and bones.
