The American Spectator

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Give the President a Foil

9.21.06 @ 12:01AM

LET'S LOSE ONE FOR THE GIPPER
Re: David Hogberg's Little Virtue in Losing:

David Hogberg disagrees with an argument that I and several other prominent conservatives have made lately that it might be in the interest of the Republican Party to suffer a political loss in this year's congressional elections.

One reason I made this argument is because a Republican victory this year may lead to a much bigger loss in 2008. Conversely, a Democratic win this year may ensure that the White House stays in Republican hands.

We don't have too many data points to prove my point, but here are some examples.

In 1946, Harry Truman's popularity rating was down to 27 percent. That year, Republicans retook control of both the House and Senate. By using the Republican Congress as a foil, Truman was able to raise his approval rating to 39 percent by 1948, enabling him to win re-election that year.

In 1954, Dwight Eisenhower's popularity was at 62 percent when Republicans lost control of Congress. Two years later after having a Democratic Congress as a foil, his popularity had risen to 75 percent and won re-election easily.

In 1994, Bill Clinton's approval was down to 41 percent just before the election. Like Truman, he was able to use the Republican Congress as a foil and raise his approval to 55 percent by 1996 and also gained re-election.

Admittedly, these are all cases of incumbent presidents running for re-election, which Republicans won't have in 2008. Still, it does appear that losing control of Congress is worth about 13 percentage points to the president's popularity.

Raw poll data can be found here.
-- Bruce Bartlett
Great Falls, Virginia

It seems to me that Mr. Hogberg's article begs the question because the U.S. House is probably the worst part of the government to lose. Yes, the House has adopted the Bush trait of spending on big government programs, or boondoggles, depending on your view. On the big issues that transcend the budget, like immigration or the so-called War on Terror, the House has been on the side of the good guys.

It is the Senate where the GOP has flopped big time. There you have Specter giving cover to the Dems on the Judiciary Committee. You have McCain that completely delights in putting the GOP in between a rock and a hard place. You have Snowe, Collins, Chafee that are more liberal than many of the Dems. You have Graham and Hagel that vie with McCain as the most egotistical and the biggest thorns in the GOP's side. You have Voinovich who is quite simply a wimp. You have Warner who works with the GOP leadership most of the time, but seems to act up at precisely the worst possible time. And that is just the GOP loser list that I think of off the top of my head.

I would propose that we could better afford to lose the Senate than the House. When we make a mistake in electing a Senator, we are stuck with him/her for 6 years, instead of only two with the House. Yes, we might be in trouble on Judicial or other Executive branch appointments, but it might not be as bad as one might think. I am inclined to think that a case MIGHT be able to be made that the Dems in charge of the major Senate committees would so highlight their partisanship and lack of co-operation that they would have to take a more reasonable course out of sheer necessity. I wouldn't definitely predict that, but it is at least possible. Oh well, it is something to think about. Especially since there is no real reason for an even semi-competent GOP to lose either branch of the legislature this year. Oh, wait, I forgot we are talking about the stupid party, aren't we.
-- Ken Shreve

While I may have to admit that actually losing is the worst of all cases, the fear of losing is indeed a virtue! How else do you explain Leader's Frist newfound interest in closing the borders? The prancing and preening Republican senators will only be emboldened by a big win this fall.

For years, I have worked, donated, and supported the fat little Republicans only to watch Conservative values being trashed daily. I want this election to be so close that several see their tawdry little lives flashing before their eyes!
-- Judy Beumler
Louisville, Kentucky
P.S. They will do whatever they do this fall without my money!

FAITH AND REASON
Re: Patrick O'Hannigan's No Need for Grim Faces:

Letter to the Editor

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