Word has it that Republican fortunes
this year have improved, especially for the Senate. However,
because they were so low there was little else they could do but go
up. That said, it is time for me to give my first run down of how
the Senate is shaping up for November 2006. (And given my record
last time, the pressure is on).
First, let’s list the Senators that will almost certainly be
back in D.C. come January. That includes Jeff Bingaman (D-NM),
Robert Byrd (D-WV), Tom Carper (D-DE), Hillary Clinton (D-NY), John
Ensign, (R-NV), Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX),
Ted Kennedy (D-MA), Herb Kohl (D-WI), Trent Lott (R-MS), Richard
Lugar (R-IN), Ben Nelson (D-NE), Olympia Snowe (R-ME), and Craig
Thomas (R-WY). Although he is not a Senator (yet), Representative
Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who is running for the seat vacated by
retiring Jim Jeffords (who?), should also be put in the shoo-in
category. Sanders is an avowed socialist, making him a perfect fit
for the land of Ben and Jerry’s.
Here are the competitive races:
Arizona: Democrat Jim Pederson, a shopping
center developer, has poured $8 million of his own money into the
Arizona race. Still, he can’t seem to do any better than get within
ten points of Senator Jon Kyl. Adding to Pederson’s woes is that
his 24-year-old son, James, was just sentenced to two years
probation on drug charges. Leans
Republican.
Connecticut: Conventional wisdom has it that
Joe Lieberman will easily beat Ned Lamont in November, despite his
loss in the primary. But recent polls aren’t bearing that out. Both
Rasmussen and the American Research Group show Lieberman with only
a two-point lead. Lieberman likes to tout all the Republicans who
support him, such as Jack Kemp. But I wonder, is this really the year
to have members of the GOP campaigning for you, especially in
Connecticut? Tossup.
Florida: Barely worth mentioning now that one
poll shows Bill Nelson with a lead of more than forty points. All
hope seemed lost when Katherine Harris won the GOP primary last
Tuesday. Leans (heavily) Democrat.
Hawaii: No chance of this race going to the
GOP, but there is an interesting development in the Democratic
Primary, where Rep. Ed Case is challenging three-term Senator
Daniel Akaka. After refusing to debate Case, Akaka finally gave in
and agreed to a debate on a local PBS affiliate. Most commentators
agree that Case won the debate. Polls are mixed. An OmniTrak Group
poll showed Akaka with a wide lead, 55-35%, while Rasmussen showed
Case with a slight lead, 47-45%. Since the primary is on September
23rd, I should pick a winner. My guess is Akaka hangs on.
Maryland: For a state that is pretty blue,
Republican Lt. Governor Michael Steele looks to be in good shape. A
recent Rasmussen poll showed his likely Democratic opponents with
only small leads, with Ben Cardin ahead 47-42% and Kweisi Mfume
leading 46-44%. Steele seems likely to fare best against Mfume, and
the good news is Mfume seems to be surging going into today’s
primary. Still, with this likely to be a good year for Democrats,
Steele needs a lead in the polls to move this race into the Toss Up
category. My prediction for today’s primary is Mfume wins.
Otherwise, this race Leans Democrat.
Michigan: Senator Debbie Stabenow appears to be
solidifying her position as frontrunner, with a recent Rasmussen
poll showing her up 51-43% over her GOP challenger Mike Bouchard.
Leans Democrat.
Minnesota: With Democratic Senator Mark Dayton
declining to seek another term, and with Republican Rep. Mark
Kennedy agreeing to run, this seemed like a great opportunity for a
GOP pickup. But Kennedy has never led Democrat County Attorney Amy
Klobuchar in any polls, and the general direction of the polls
suggests that Klobuchar has widened her lead. If this trend
continues, analysts will spend months wondering what went wrong for
Kennedy. Leans Democrat.
Missouri: Until recently, former State Auditor
and Democratic candidate for Governor Claire McCaskill either led
or was very close to incumbent Senator Jim Talent in most polls.
Two recent polls show Talent leading and hitting the 50% mark.
Talent appears to be gaining ground. Worse for McCaskill, Bill
Clinton, with his record of supporting a lot of losing candidates,
paid a visit last Saturday. This race is very close to being put in
the Leans Republican category. But not yet.
Tossup.
Montana: Looks like scandal-plagued D.C. will
claim at least one victim in GOP Senator Conrad Burns. State
Senator Jon Tester has had small leads in most of the recent polls.
He also seems far more likable than the crusty Burns. Don’t count
Burns out just yet, though. In 2000, Burns was in a tight race most
of the way with rancher Brian Schweitzer and ultimately prevailed.
Leans Democrat.
New Jersey: One would think that being an
incumbent Senator would convey electoral advantages. One could say
the same thing about being the son of a former popular governor.
Yet neither Democratic Senator Bob Menendez nor his GOP challenger
Tom Kean, Jr. can seem to build a consistent lead. Although the
latest polls show Kean with a 4-to-5 point lead, the state is
heavily blue and it is likely to be a good Democrat year.
Leans Democrat.
Ohio: After years of lousy governance the Ohio
GOP appears headed for an implosion, taking Senator Mike DeWine
with it. Congressman Sherrod Brown has led in the last seven polls.
Leans Democrat.
Pennsylvania: This is quickly becoming the most
difficult race to handicap. Although Democratic State Treasurer Bob
Casey has led in all the polls since February, in recent weeks
Senator Rick Santorum has narrowed his lead to single digits. That
combined with a devastating performance in his debate with Casey on
Meet The Press, and everything seemed to be going
Santorum’s way. So what to make of the new USAToday/Gallup poll showing Casey with an 18 point lead? I’m
inclined to dismiss it as a fluke, but it is still enough for me to
put this in the Leans Democrat column for
now.
Rhode Island: Senator Lincoln Chafee and former
Democrat Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse are polling very
close. But Chafee first has to fend off former Cranston Mayor Steve
Laffey, who is challenging Chafee in the GOP primary. Chafee may be
the first incumbent Senator to go down to a Club for Growth-backed
primary challenger, as a recent Rhode Island College poll shows
Laffey leading 51-37%! Given that Chafee has done nothing to make
the GOP base in Rhode Island happy (his flip-flop on U.N.
Ambassador John Bolton being the latest such incident), I’m betting
that Laffey wins the primary today. For the general election, this
state Leans Democrat.
Tennessee: Most of the polls that have shown
Democratic Rep. Harold Ford with a lead come from Democratic firms.
Otherwise, former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker appears to be in
command. Leans Republican.
Virginia: It appears that the “Macaca” incident
has cost Senator George Allen some support. Recent polls show the
race tightening, with Democrat challenger Jim Webb taking a tiny
lead in a Zogby poll. Yet the Macaca incident is the only news
about the Senate race that most Virginians have heard up to now,
so, it’s not too surprising that Allen has slipped. Most Virginians
have not yet gotten to know Webb, and Allen still has big dollars
in the bank. Chances are that Allen’s numbers will rebound, but
until they do I will tentatively put this down as a
Tossup.
Washington: Senator Maria Cantwell has led in
every poll taken thus far. GOP candidate Mike McGavick recently
revealed a 1993 DUI arrest, and his recollection was apparently at
odds with the arrest report. He has also returned campaign
contributions from executives of VECO Corporation, an oil company
now under investigation by the FBI. Couldn’t seem to get much
better for Cantwell. Leans Democrat
We’ll see where we are in a few weeks. Until then the GOP has a
long way to go to prevent the loss of seats in the Senate.
