This morning, Israeli forces will have ceased fire in Lebanon,
forced by their government to accept a strategic defeat in the
month-long war against Hizballah. Almost any military can recover
from tactical losses, but nations are usually powerless to avoid
defeat after losing a strategic battle. For World War II Japan,
defeat was still three years away when the last of four aircraft
carriers was sunk by Adm. Ray Spruance’s dive bombers and torpedo
planes in the battle of Midway. For Israel, defeat may come much
sooner if it doesn’t mend its prime minister’s ways. Yamamoto had
to explain his defeat to Emperor Hirohito, who left him in command.
Olmert has to explain his to the Israeli electorate. They must be
less forgiving because their time is measured not in years but in
weeks or months.
Since July 12, when Hizballah raided into northern Israel and
kidnapped two soldiers, Hassan Nasrallah’s terrorist brigades have
fired hundreds of rockets each day into Israel, killing civilians
and driving about one million Israelis into bomb shelters. In
answer to that, the Olmert government sent Israeli aircraft and
commandos into Lebanon to strike at Hizballah’s well-dug-in command
centers, arms caches, and armed units. Though it has suffered
enormous damage, Hizballah continues its rocket attacks. Yesterday,
more than 200 rockets struck, some as far south as Haifa.
Several times last week, Olmert ordered large Israeli ground
units into Lebanon to take out Hizballah. But each time they were
sent in, Olmert hesitated. What was sent in was withdrawn, Olmert
playing the role of Lyndon Johnson to Nasrallah’s Ho Chi Minh.
Every time it appeared that the UN would declare a cease-fire,
Olmert held his hand. And the Israeli Defense Forces were several
times sent in and then pulled back to the outrage of its members
and the citizenry it is sworn to defend. One Fox News reporter,
standing on the border, told us about nine tanks he saw go into
Lebanon and then come right back out again a couple of hours later.
Now a large Israeli force is in Lebanon, to serve as sitting ducks
for Hizballah attacks, prohibited from conducting offensive
operations.
In every war since its independence, Israel has won decisively
against Arab forces by throwing its full military weight against
the enemy. None, before Hassan Nasrallah, has been able to
withstand the Israelis. But now Nasrallah towers over all other
terrorist leaders, even bin Laden. Nasrallah has fought the Israeli
military to a standstill for a month, and his rockets still rain
down on Israel. Nasrallah was, by UN action, elevated to the status
of leader of a nation-state able to accept or reject the UN’s
terms. He has said that his “fighters” will continue to attack as
long as Israeli soldiers remain in Lebanon.
Nasrallah now rules Lebanon, or “Hizballahstan” to be more
accurate. The UNIFIL force, whenever it is re-formed and deployed,
will do no more than it has in the past, meaning there will be no
effort to disarm Hizballah. The Hizballahstan government, relieved
of Israeli air attack, will have Syrian and Iranian aid to rebuild
the supply lines and regroup and rearm its terrorist army in
southern Lebanon in a matter of days or weeks.
Hizballah is a proxy for Syria and Iran. And in this war Israel
— closely identified with America — has failed to achieve
anything that remotely resembles victory. This is not a matter of
Israel’s value as an American ally. It is a matter of
civilization’s ability to defeat global Islamic terrorism and the
nations that create and support it. Nasrallah’s victory says that
democracies can be counted on to fight on the enemy’s terms,
disdaining the capability they have to win. Other terrorist leaders
and their cells in the UK, America and elsewhere will take
Nasrallah’s victory as proof that they too can succeed where al
Qaeda has so far failed. They will attack again and again believing
that eventually they will win against democracies that respond to
attacks minimally, foregoing their battlefield advantages in a
pusillanimous attempt to appease Muslims who aren’t yet openly
siding with the terrorists.
It is often said that the Jews are the miner’s canary of
civilization. When they can be killed with impunity, when their
enemies are allowed to continue genocidal attacks, every democracy
is endangered. So it is with Nasrallah’s victory. But that can be
changed. It must be, and not just for Israel’s sake.
Hizballah has more American blood on its hands than any other
terrorist organization with the sole exception of al Qaeda. If
Israel is unable or unwilling to defeat it, there should come a
time — perhaps even later this year — when we would tell Israel
to step aside and to do the job ourselves. But we will not, because
— like Israel — we quail at the thought of doing what we can for
fear of what will be said of us among our enemies. In 1973, USAF
aircraft were being fueled and armed to flash into the skies over
Israel, establish air supremacy and prevent disaster on the ground.
The next time Israel’s existence is threatened, even our fastest
fighters and bombers may not be able to get there in time to do
more than survey the damage below.
As I wrote a
few weeks ago, this war was precipitated by Iran’s Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad as a dress rehearsal for something larger. Ahmadinejad
wanted to establish Lebanon as the first Islamist state in Iran’s
new caliphate. In that, he has only to consolidate Nasrallah’s
victory to succeed. After Olmert’s cabinet approved the cease-fire
yesterday, his foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, said the UN deal
would, result in a “change in the rules of the game” between Israel
and Lebanon. She added, “It can lead to the real change in the
Middle East that we have all been waiting for.” A more complete
detachment from reality is unimaginable. By pursuing the minimalist
strategy against Hizballah and by accepting the UN deal, Olmert has
given Ahmadinejad the green light for whatever comes next.
Israel’s military is still capable of dealing with Hizballah
itself. If Olmert were removed and competent leadership put in
place, the first rocket attack from Lebanon would be answered with
an air and ground campaign that would sweep through Lebanon north
to the Syrian border in a manner that emulated Sherman’s march
through Georgia. Lebanon’s civilian government would be freed —
forcibly — from the grip of Syria and Hizballah. And Syrian
forces, now reportedly gathering near the Golan Heights, would be
destroyed without warning. But what if Olmert remains, his
government comprised of the weak Amir Peretz and the risible Livni,
in control of Israel’s future?
Time is the most precious asset in any war. Israel has very
little of it left.
TAS contributing editor Jed Babbin is the author
of Inside the Asylum: Why the UN and Old Europe Are
Worse Than You Think (Regnery, 2004) and, with Edward
Timperlake, Showdown: Why China Wants War With the United
States (Regnery, May 2006 — click here to obtain a free chapter).
