If Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were ready to precipitate the return of
the Twelfth Imam, nuclear weapons would already have gone off in
the sky over Tel Aviv. Obviously unprepared to commence a
conclusive war, the Iranian apocalyptic chose to use Iran's
surrogate, Hizballah, to precipitate a limited war between Israel
and the Lebanese democracy-cum-terrorist regime of which Hizballah
is a part. Why now, and to what end? Knowing Iran's ambition to
become the hegemon of a new Islamic caliphate, following its
foreign policy as closely as we can, we must conclude that this
campaign is a dress rehearsal for something Iran plans for the
future, near or distant. In that context, we have to view Secretary
Rice's trip to the Middle East this week with skepticism if not
alarm.
Just a few months ago, Iran's "Great Prophet" war games tested
the regime's Chinese-built command and control systems and proved
Iran could launch missiles from at least two independent command
centers. It proved Iranian naval forces could close the Strait of
Hormuz (through which most of the West's non-Iranian oil flows) for
some time. What it didn't prove was that the Iranian regime could
survive a non-nuclear American attack. Let's not pussyfoot around
it. When Russia completes delivery to Iran of the thirty copies of
its TOR M-1 antiaircraft missile system later this year, no nation
that lacks stealth aircraft will be able to do much to Iran without
launching nuclear weapons on ballistic missiles. That narrows it
down to us and China. And the Chinese aren't about to hit their
best Middle Eastern ally.
The Hizballah attack on Israel has resulted in an Israeli
response that is both highly destructive and far from conclusive.
At this writing (Sunday afternoon), Israeli ground forces have not
entered Lebanon in strength and Hizballah and Hamas rocket attacks
continue from both Lebanon and Gaza. Even if the Israelis send a
large force into Lebanon, it's clear that they won't go far or stay
long. In past campaigns, the Israelis have wanted to establish a
buffer zone to keep Hizballah's arsenal of Katyusha rockets out of
range. But now Hizballah is armed with longer-range missiles and --
unless its supply from Iran through Syria is interdicted -- will
soon have all of Israel's main cities within their range. No buffer
zone that is south of Beirut will suffice, and Israel cannot either
maintain a buffer over half of Lebanon itself or expect anyone else
to do it.
The best possible result from this campaign would be for Israel
to so damage Hizballah that Lebanon's Arab neighbors could divorce
Lebanon's pseudo-democracy from Hizballah and enable a legitimate
government to arise there. But to expect such help from Saudi
Arabia, Jordan and Egypt is both unrealistic and unwise. The most
likely result will be for Israel to continue its strikes in Lebanon
for another week or two and then withdraw, giving Hizballah another
victory and solidifying its control in Lebanon. Which sets the
stage for Condi's failure and Ahmadinejad's next step.
SECRETARY RICE ARRIVES TODAY in the Middle East after meeting with
the president and Saudi representatives yesterday. According to
several reports, her mission is to gain Arab nations' support to
divide Syria from what the NYT characterized as Lebanon's
"alliance of convenience" with Iran. Faint hope for a foolish
mission.
The Arab nations are frightened of Iran. The light is dawning in
the minds of the Arab despots that Iran is a more immediate threat
to them than to us. And they are right, in a sense. Like Churchill
said of earlier appeasers, the Saudis are feeding the crocodile
hoping it will eat them last. The Saudis always fancied themselves
as the last piece of meat that might survive the appetite of Mars.
But Iran's intensifying aggression has changed the Saudis' spot on
the menu from dessert to somewhere between the soup and the salad.
They, like the Jordanians and Egyptians, would like to see a
multinational "peacekeeping" force in Lebanon to restore their
version of "stability" which enables terrorists to operate without
interrupting too many despots in mid-debauch. They will refuse to
participate by sending troops to Lebanon to help slow Iran's
advance. They will, instead, sing the same tune they did in 1991.
It's an Arabic translation of "Onward Christian Soldiers."
Secretary Rice will be pressured by the Arab leaders to stop
Israel's Lebanon campaign and force a cease-fire. They want
American guarantees of their own security and once they have been
assured that we will defend them against Iran, their cooperation
will cease. The Arabs have gotten away with that strategy for too
long. And Rice will let them continue. The Saudis should be told
that if they decline to send troops and aircraft to enforce a
Lebanese buffer zone against Hizballah and openly campaign for a
democracy in Lebanon that rejects Hizballah as a legitimate part of
the Lebanese political process, we will guarantee nothing but our
own access to their oil, regardless of who reigns in Riyadh, Cairo
or Amman. If they make no promise to help throw Hizballah out of
Lebanon and Rice succeeds only in delaying demands for Israeli
withdrawal, the stage will be set for Ahmadinejad's next act.
Anyone who thinks we can talk Syria into splitting from Iran, or
that the Arab states will help us do that, is barking mad. During
his meeting with the Saudis on Sunday, the president didn't even
suggest that they should. Syria knows that it can play the Saudis'
game by placating both sides, and that there is no penalty for
doing so. Syria will demand a cease-fire, promise cooperation and
dutifully attend more meetings of the Arab League and the UN to
talk about another "peace process."
RICE'S MISSION WILL FAIL, Israel will withdraw from Lebanon, and
Hizballah -- battered and bleeding -- will return, regroup, and
rearm with even more terrible weapons. In that, both we and the
Israelis will have played into Ahmadinejad's hands. This campaign
against Israel will have proved, yet again, that we will allow the
regimes that support, arm and direct Hizballah and other terrorists
to survive whatever their proxies do. Iran still lacks nuclear
weapons or the means to deliver them. Iranian military purchases
from North Korea will soon solve the latter problem for Iran. The
former won't be resolved for another year or two. When that
happens, Ahmadinejad's regime will move ahead with the next step in
its plan.
The future grows darker week by week. Ahmadinejad, encouraged by
the result of the Hizballah offensive, will be only two steps away
from his regime's first major goal. The first step will be achieved
by some massive Iranian attack on Israel (either directly or again
using Hizballah) intended to damage Israel and goad us into a
counterstrike against Iran. If the Iranian regime survives an
American attack, Iran's next attack will result in the deaths of
millions and establish Iran's caliphate in the Middle East. Will
that happen later this year, next, or the one after? It needn't
happen at all. The choice is ours because no one else can make
it.
Pat Buchanan is adamant in his wrong-headedness. This is our
war, and the Israelis are fighting it for us as well as for
themselves. We must, on this front and others, by diplomacy and by
military force, fight this war in a manner calculated to win
decisively, or we shall lose inevitably. We still have a few years
to do it. For Israel, the time is measured in months.
TAS contributing editor Jed Babbin is the author
of Inside the Asylum: Why the UN and Old Europe Are
Worse Than You Think (Regnery, 2004) and, with Edward
Timperlake, Showdown: Why China Wants War With the United
States (Regnery, May 2006 -- click here to obtain a free chapter).
topics:
Foreign Policy, Islam, Military, Iran, Russia, Israel, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, Oil
