There has been much speculation in Australia about a secret deal
to transfer power from current Prime Minister John Howard to his
deputy, Peter Costello, before next year’s parliamentary elections.
On July 6, the Associated Press reported that Howard now denies
that such a deal has been struck. Whether a deal is in the works or
not depends on who you ask, but one thing is clear: whoever sits as
Prime Minister after the 2007 elections must continue to be an
instrumental ally of the United States in both the region, and
increasingly on a global scale.
Costello, who since the mid-1990s has acted as both Treasurer of
Australia and Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party, has refused to
repudiate talk that he is slated to replace the prime minister.
Indeed, it is no secret that Costello was disappointed when Howard
decided to run again in 2004, and the deputy is widely seen in
Australia as the leading contender to fill the job. This should
provide encouragement for Washington as Costello is likely to
continue the current policy that has resulted in Canberra being
labeled America’s “deputy sheriff” of the Pacific.
Australia has traditionally been a vital U.S. partner in
Southeast Asia and the Pacific. With the United States’ entry into
World War II and the British preoccupied with defeating the Nazis,
Australia found the Americans to be the only guarantor of its
security. This de facto arrangement was largely codified with the
1951 ANZUS Treaty between Australia, New Zealand, and the United
States, and Canberra proved loyal throughout the Cold War
deploying, troops abroad in both Korea and Vietnam. Australia also
sent forces to join the British in Malaysia in 1965 to defend
against the “anti-colonialist” and communist-allied Indonesian
President Sukarno’s Konfrontasi — a contribution to the Cold War
in its own right.
More recently John Howard’s government invoked the ANZUS Treaty
to support the U.S. in Afghanistan and joined the American-led
coalition in both Operation Iraqi Freedom and its aftermath. Today
there are approximately 1,500 Australian troops in Iraq and nearly
1,300 in Afghanistan. It is imperative that Canberra continue to
coalesce with the Bush administration in Iraq and — though the two
certainly are not separate — the war on terror. In fact, the
anti-war media in Australia claim that U.S. Republican use of “cut
and run” against Democrats was stolen from Howard’s camp.
Unfortunately, there are many that wish Australia could cut and run
out of Al Muthanna.
The latest polls show Howard’s Liberal/National coalition losing
popular support. The publication The Australian found that
53 percent of those polled currently support the opposition Labor
Party. The prime minister recently noted: “Winning the next
election is going to be a very tough assignment for the coalition.”
Were Labor to emerge victorious in 2007, the coalition would
undoubtedly not be the only loser.
Labor has been less enthusiastic about missile defense and,
unlike Howard’s government, strongly backs the International
Criminal Court. More importantly, the opposition has repeatedly
called for a withdrawal of Australian forces from Iraq, whereas
both the prime minister and his cabinet remain committed to the
deployment of troops “until the job is done.” An Australian
withdrawal from Iraq would not only influence deployments within
the country, but also represent a significant political loss for
both the Bush administration and the campaign to establish a stable
and prosperous democracy in Iraq.
Additionally, should Labor triumph Canberra will likely soften
its stance towards radical Islam and abandon the forthright
approach adopted by the Howard Administration. Costello has often
spoken candidly about what he calls “mushy multiculturalism.” In
late February, the prime minister defended his deputy’s comments
calling for Australia’s Muslims to assimilate, saying: “What Peter
was basically saying is that if people don’t like what this country
is then they shouldn’t come here.” Similar words from President
Bush would be a welcome surprise. But like much of Europe,
Australia does have a demographic problem that could propel radical
changes within the country. The danger, as Danna Vale of the
Liberal Party has noted, is that Muslims may constitute the
majority of Australia’s population within fifty years.
THE CONTRASTS IN ASIA ARE also evident. The Sino-Australian
relationship has become increasingly important for each country as
bilateral trade continues to skyrocket. Last year alone trade
expanded by 30 percent to a record level of $27.3 billion. As the
Chinese Communist Party’s People’s Daily stated on July 3,
the economies of China and Australia “mesh perfectly,” and the hope
is that by 2007 a free trade agreement can be successfully
negotiated to “push the Sino-Australian economic and strategic
interaction to a new level.”
It is worth noting that the Labor Party was set to recognize the
People’s Republic of China in 1949 before it was defeated by
conservatives who ensured the recognition of the Republic of China
(Taiwan) until 1972. Labor’s current views are fundamentally shaped
by the economic benefits that are expected to continue to accompany
China’s rise. As Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs and
International Security Kevin Rudd stated, he both foresees and
desires the 21st century to be the “Pacific Century.” The peril of
a Labor victory next year is that it would result in greater
economic and strategic interaction with China, and that the
partnership would affect the United States’ position not only in
the Asia-Pacific region, but also draw Canberra to increasingly
follow Beijing geopolitically.
Howard, for his part, maintains healthy relations with Beijing,
but is also willing to challenge the Chinese leadership. During a
recent visit with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, the Australian prime
minister made it clear that he expected China to act responsibly in
applying significant pressure on the North Koreans regarding their
latest missile activities. On his return home, Howard told the
Australian Broadcasting Corporation: “China has more influence on
North Korea than any other country and I hope that China uses that
influence and that is the view that I put in very strong terms to
the Chinese premier.”
In dealing with North Korea, the prime minister and his cabinet
have held a position that is both strong and in tune with that of
the United States. Meeting with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld
at the Pentagon in late June, Australian Defense Minister Brendan
Nelson — who is also considered a candidate, albeit unlikely, to
succeed Howard — proclaimed that “should North Korea launch what
proves to be a missile, Australia would strongly support the United
States effectively, as it sees fit.” These are the allies the
United States must maintain to conduct a successful foreign policy
in both Asia and in international institutions.
The Bush administration should do all it can to help John
Howard’s coalition retain its seat in Parliament while avoiding
seeming too interested. Australia currently has about 2,000 troops
in East Timor acting as peacekeepers and training local forces, and
the conflict’s proximity to the continent has provided the
opposition with additional leverage for pulling Australia’s forces
out of Iraq. Washington would be wise to cover the mere $3 million
that is needed in East Timor under the UN’s World Food Program to
avoid a local hunger crisis in the near future. The diminutive
republic may not receive a great deal of attention in the West, but
it is in the spotlight of the Australian media, and the Bush
administration should work to ensure that Howard’s government is
successful there.
The ideal scenario for the United States would be a continued
rise in public optimism over Iraq, a stable and recovering East
Timor, and a hold on the Howard-Costello deal until after
Australia’s 2007 elections. The prime minister has traditionally
polled better than his deputy, and in what is expected to be such a
competitive race, it is best that Costello remains in his position
until after the election is won. Any alternative could
fundamentally set the United States back and help turn the tides of
the 21st century into a Pacific Century indeed.
