By Lawrence Henry on 7.7.06 @ 12:07AM
When it comes to Iran, they don't lie.
Came the other day in the mail an annual supplement from the
Economist, titled "Pocket World in Figures, 2006." I love
books like this. By chance, the very first page I opened was
Iran's.
Iran, we find, has 68.9 million people, with an average lifespan
of 70 years for men and 73 years for women. They maintain this
apparent stout level of health with 1.1 doctors per 1,000 people
(the United States has 2.8). Iranian marriages occur at a rate of
9.9 per 1,000 population, while divorces happen at a rate of only
1.0 per thousand. To complete a profile of a society very unlike
our own, Persians own 9.5 color television sets per household.
Under "Internet hosts per 1,000 households," the guide lists a
simple dash.
The Englishness of the darn book does trip me up. Am I an
"Internet host" because I have an Internet account? Surely they
could not mean that nobody in Iran has the Internet. They could not
mean maintainers of websites. Again, the U.S. is shown as having
680 "hosts" per 1,000 people. That's more like an Internet
participation rate.
Whatever, Iranians aren't hanging out much on the web.
THE PRESENT CRISIS IS CLEARLY illustrated under the heading
"energy." Here, Iran is shown as producing 240.5 million TOE (tons
of oil equivalent). Its energy consumption is 134.0, just above
half as much energy as it produces.
No, Iran does not need nuclear power.
Its main source of ready cash comes from exporting oil, with
nearly 30 percent of its exports going to Japan. (Japan is a lot
more important to Iran than Iran is to Japan. Iran does not rank as
one of Japan's principal sources of import.) Inflation, we find,
runs at Nigeria-type rates, 16.5 percent. Nearly 30 percent of the
country's population is under 15, while only 6 percent is over 60,
which bodes well for a dynamic future.
The Economist also publishes the United Nations' "human
development index," a scale that runs from 0 to 100. It combines
adult literacy, life expectancy, income level, and years of
schooling. A rate above 80 is considered high; below 50, low.
Iran's is 73.6. The United States ranks number eight in the world,
at 93.9.
The economic freedom index runs from 1 to 5, rating how free
people are allowed to be in their commercial activities, with 1 the
most free and 5 the most restricted. Savvy observers have long
pointed out how Iran, in its economy, resembles an old-fashioned
Mafia family. Its economic freedom index is a highly restrictive
4.16. Matter of fact, as I page through the Guide, looking for
comparisons, it appears that Iran's EFI is the worst in the world.
By far. (It's worse than China's.)
SO WHAT COUNTRIES RESEMBLE IRAN? In the 60-70 million population
range lie Egypt, Turkey, Ethiopia, Thailand, France, and the UK. In
the youth of its society, Iran resembles Turkey. In its isolation
from the Internet, it is most like Egypt. In life expectancy, it is
much like Thailand and Turkey. Of countries that size, only Iran
depends so completely on a single source for cash, that source
being oil.
Can statistics predict a country's future? Single-crop
economies, like the Old South, offer, of course, a classically
vulnerable profile to the rest of the world. Right now, Iran's
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad plays games with the West, games that
drive up the world price of petroleum -- there's a "terror premium"
in oil prices. What happens if the rest of the world gets fed up?
Alternate fuels are not really on the horizon, but when they
appear, their use will grow at incredible speed.
That's one thing. For another, that economic freedom index,
together with a high inflation rate, set alongside Iran's very
young and fairly well-educated population, would seem to create a
steam kettle about to blow.
topics:
Television, Books, Iran, United Nations, Energy, Oil
