DEAN’S DELUSIONS
Democrat National Committee chairman Howard Dean
is seeing polling numbers that are making him a nervous man. Recent
internal polling data for Senate races from Washington state,
Minnesota, Michigan, Missouri, and Maryland — with the exception
of Missouri, which is a GOP defense — shows Democrat support
cratering if not crumbling around the edges.
Missouri’s seat — held by Sen. Jim Talent —
“was one we’d targeted as winnable, along with Pennsylvania, and
all of those other seats weren’t ones we were overly concerned
about, even Maryland, where we think we have two strong candidates
on our side,” says a DNC staffer. “But now we’re seeing bad signs
inside our polling data and folks here aren’t happy.”
Why should they be? In Maryland, where Rep. Ben
Cardin is leading in fundraising, former Rep.
Kweisi Mfume is actually ahead of Cardin in name
recognition and support in some Democrat polls. Republican
Lieutenant Gov. Michael Steele is currently
garnering greater support among African-Americans than any other
Republican in recent state history.
In Michigan, where there is a contested Republican primary to
face off against Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Democrats
across the state are seeing support collapsing, and Stabenow is now
considered in danger by her own party. In Minnesota Rep.
Mark Kennedy (R) is polling ahead of expectations,
and in Washington state, Democrat Sen. Maria
Cantwell is now the No. 1 Republican target in the 2006
cycle as her polling numbers slide.
“The problem is this: we’ve committed huge amounts of resources
on the state level in anticipation of that investment paying off in
getting out the vote,” says another DNC staffer. “Dean has taken
heat for spending so much money. Right now, that investment isn’t
looking very good and no matter what anyone says, we’re nervous.
Things were never as good as people were saying they were, and now
the numbers are confirming that.”
Dean especially has been taking heat from Sen. Chuck
Schumer, head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign
Committee, and from minority leaders Harry Reid
and Nancy Pelosi about the amount of upfront
spending the DNC has been making. They had been pressing for the
DNC to invest funds into the House and Senate campaign committees
so that the funds could be used for important races.
“We had targeted Pennsylvania and Maryland as high cost races,”
says an outside Democrat political consultant. “After that, you’re
looking at Missouri and Minnesota as races we really wanted to win.
Now, we’re looking at spending a lot more in Maryland and
Minnesota, and a lot more than we probably budgeted in Washington
and Michigan. That means less for other states. The upshot is if
the numbers hold or continue to get worse, we aren’t winning the
Senate.”
LIEBERMAN’S OPPORTUNITY
All of that bad Democrat news makes the ongoing saga between
Connecticut Democrat, Sen. Joe Lieberman, and his
party all the more interesting. At a time when his party can ill
afford to alienate centrist constituencies across the country, it
is doing just that with Lieberman, and some senior Republicans are
wondering whether they shouldn’t get into the fight to help
Lieberman despite the fact that a weakened Lieberman could mean a
win for their expected nominee in the state, Alan
Schlesinger.
“Lieberman has been a more loyal American and a real leader for
our nation than some of the men we have on our side of the aisle in
the Senate,” says a Republican fundraiser. “I don’t want to see
Lieberman lose to a leftist nut like Ned
Lamont.”
Lamont is a communications executive who is challenging
Lieberman in the Democratic primary. Lamont has run almost
exclusively as an anti-war, MoveOn.org candidate. Recently,
Lieberman’s former running mate, Al Gore, refused
to support Lieberman, and just yesterday, Sen. Russ
Feingold refused to support his colleague.
There have been rumors that Lieberman, were he to lose the
Democratic primary, would run as an independent. To that end, some
members of his campaign have been quietly preparing petitions to
collect the necessary 7,500 signatures that are required for
submission the day after the August 8 primary.
An independent Lieberman scares Democrats, if only because they
fear he will increasingly side with Republicans in a newly aligned
Senate. “I don’t know why they are treating him so badly at a time
when they should be trying to embrace him a bit more, if only for
his vote,” says a Republican. “You sense that guys like Feingold
are talking to the wrong people, the nutty left. Feingold listens
to them, does what they tell him, and then when it comes time to
actually do something, they don’t have the power or the votes to
really help. Lieberman isn’t a marginal guy. Feingold is. The
environment right now is just crazy.”
WON’T FLY
Some Bush administration and senior Senate staffers are warning the
White House away from one of the potential replacements for
departing Transportation Secretary Norm Mineta:
Federal Aviation Administration head Marion
Blakey. Blakey, who previously served as chairman of the
National Transportation Safety Board, is considered a strong
candidate.
But the FAA is mired in trouble right now, with failing
infrastructure and poor career management, political infighting,
and trouble with outside contractors who have failed to resolve
technology problems the FAA was aware of but chose not to
pursue.
“Now just isn’t her time,” says a Senate staffer. “We’ve
suggested to the White House that they look in another
direction.”
