This was supposed to be a column on how the Bush administration
could turn around its political fortunes. I thought I had some good
answers. But I keep running into the same problem: The
administration is hamstrung by a GOP Congress that seems
(collectively) to lack both principle and political sense, which is
a lethal combination. How the White House can overcome not just its
own past mistakes, but also the ongoing mess on Capitol Hill, is a
serious conundrum.
Nevertheless, here are some reasons why, apart from Congress,
the White House still has a fighting chance for some real policy
successes, and also some suggestions for how to maximize their
opportunities.
Among the reasons for hope:
First, Josh Bolten seems, so far, to “get it” when it comes to
assessing the administration’s problems. His first personnel moves
— Rob Portman for the Office of Management and Budget, Tony Snow
as press secretary — were brilliant, and the early word is that he
wants an administration less arrogant and more open.
Second, there is Tony Snow himself. His first full press
briefing, Tuesday, earned mostly rave reviews from the political
right. Tony is smart, politically astute, articulate, telegenic,
conservative, and likable. With him there to get the White House’s
message out, past the hostile and often petulant, mostly liberal
mainstream media who make up the daily White House press corps,
more of the American people might finally hear the President’s side
of the story in ways that make sense. Not only that, but Tony can
be a big help to the White House internally because he can help the
White House better understand what messages and policies
work politically, and which don’t. In other words, he doesn’t have
the same tin ear that too often has marked this administration.
That’s a big advantage.
Third, Karl Rove showed Monday in a speech at the American
Enterprise Institute that he is both engaged and engaging. Here’s
predicting that within another two or three weeks he will be
formally cleared (by prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald) in the Valerie
Plame/leak case. Such a development will re-raise his political
clout just when it is needed most. Meanwhile, he proved Monday that
he is a terrific communicator. The White House should get him out
in public more often. Indeed, if Fitzgerald does release word that
Rove is off the hook, the White House should immediately call a
press conference for Rove — who then should use it as an occasion
not for rehashing the Plame case, but for saying that now that the
case is behind him he can focus instead on Bush triumphs like the
strong economy. Then, just as he did at AEI, he could use his
captive audience to push the President’s line on the topic du
jour.
Fourth, the economy is indeed incredibly strong. Unemployment,
inflation, and interest rates are low, and just about everything
good is up. And gas prices, especially in the fall, will eventually
come down at least a little. At some point, especially with a new
communications team in place at the White House, the American
people will realize that times are good — and they will at least
indirectly or subconsciously give Bush some of the credit.
Fifth, the situation in Iraq will only get better. By the fall,
I expect the administration to be able to point to some
unambiguously good news from that front.
Sixth, this president is no dummy, and he is highly competitive,
and he is courageous. He’ll keep trying until he gets the politics
right.
Seventh, a fight over judges will, almost inevitably, erupt in a
way that captures the interest of at least a big part of the
general public. When the subject is judges, conservatives win.
Eighth, the Democrats are prone to self-destruction. Captive to
the left-wing special-interest groups, overly shrill and angry, and
hopelessly out of touch with middle America, congressional
Democrats can be counted on to remind Americans that their (the
congressional Democrats’) values are out of whack and that their
policy preferences are so wacky left as to be a turn-off.
Now, for things the White House should do to help its own
cause:
First, change the subject from immigration as fast as possible.
Bush just isn’t winning on this issue. And he’s wrong, politically,
to insist on comprehensive reform all at once. The best thing he
could do would be to convince Congress to pass a bill heavy on
enforcement and heavy on improving the INS bureaucracy, along with
a mere fig leaf for a guest worker program — something like a very
short-term, temporary guest program combined with one of those
usually useless commissions to study the issue further. (For that
matter, the Vernon K. Krieble Foundation has a proposal that bears more study that could be way
out of the morass — after this election year is over:
And parts of the Krieble proposal are consonant with the
ideas of Newt Gingrich.
But whatever happens, don’t let the issue linger in active floor
debate in Congress. All it does it make all sides angry, so for
goodness sake, get out of that tar pit!
Second, actively push good, solid, articulate, and telegenic
judicial nominees, and let them actually make their own case in
public. Have them especially focus on issues of law and order. It
can’t be repeated often enough: When the issue is judges,
conservatives win, because almost all judge-related issues are ones
where conservative “positions” are politically popular.
Third, as indicated earlier, use Tony Snow and Karl Rove to best
effect to get the White House message out.
Fourth, VETO SOMETHING! Even if it means apparently
embarrassing a few congressional Republicans, a Bush veto,
specifically on the basis of a bill being too costly, would
invigorate the conservative mainstream that has been deserting this
President in droves. This also means dropping the utterly absurd
contention that the administration so far has actually been
fiscally disciplined: It hasn’t, not at all, and trying to claim
that it has been is like putting a stick in the eyes of tens of
millions of Americans frustrated with the spending orgy. But a Bush
veto, loudly trumpeted — and, if possible, backed by a second and
a third — would send the message that the president is now on
board, finally, as a true fiscal conservative. (It also would
overcome the canard that on domestic issues Bush actually has no
backbone.)
For that matter, it actually would help Republicans of
all stripes, not hurt them, if they were made to vote one way or
the other on overriding a Bush veto. The conservatives who stick
with Bush would be bolstered by their show of strong fiscal
rectitude, while the moderates who vote to override would get
credit from the “swing” voters they so covet for having the guts to
stand up to a President unpopular in their own districts. In short,
a veto gives every Republican in Congress the chance to play the
situation to his or her best political advantage.
Fifth, make a big effort in the fall to ramp up operations in
Iraq, while calling it something like “a final push to victory.”
Yes, put Iraq back on the table, with lots of upbeat noise and
rhetoric and on-the-ground action, and force the Democrats to be in
the position, if they oppose the ramp-up, of again looking as weak
on defense as they actually are. (This does not mean they
are unpatriotic; just foolish.) The Iraqi war effort needs more and
louder, more Churchillian, publicity efforts, rather than being
swept under the rug as an embarrassment.
The most important reason for such an effort, though, isn’t
political; it’s moral and practical. The best way to win the
post-war fight against the terrorists in Iraq, once and for all, is
to hit them harder, faster, and more repeatedly, while focusing
everybody’s attention on the effort and raising morale for that
effort. Slow fade-outs don’t work; they just encourage the Zarqawis
to keep fighting. What’s needed, in effect, is a reverse Tet
Offensive. The whole, worldwide, anti-terrorist effort needs the
boost that only a major, (apparently) final victory in Iraq can
provide. (Also, think creatively here: As frustrated as the
president may be with Colin Powell, perhaps the way to give the big
final push a real sense of legitimacy is to publicly bring back
Powell to be heavily involved in planning it. Tell Powell to forget
trying to be a diplomat; as one last service to his country, he is
being asked to put on his military hat once again, as in the first
Gulf War, and help us first cut off the terrorist network, and then
kill it — kill it dead.)
* * * *
There: That’s enough for now. Other ideas, and there are indeed
others, can wait. This agenda alone is far more easily said than
done, especially with a Congress that has utterly lost its way and
which, therefore, may well get in the way.
But this president, for all his faults and for all his honestly
mistaken policy choices at times, does have the best interests of
his country in his heart. All of us as Americans need to see him
succeed — because, after all, it’s more than politics that is at
stake here. It’s our country that George W. Bush is trying to
serve, and we all benefit when his efforts succeed.
