By Jed Babbin on 4.17.06 @ 12:08AM
China's President Hu Jintao -- one of the world's worst dictators. Read up on the Pacific Cold War.
It's a commonplace for leaders to come to Washington, hat in
hand, supplicating for money or diplomatic succor or both. And it's
not unusual for allies to come for one political exercise or
another. But since the end of the European Cold War it's pretty
rare for the leader of our opponent in the Pacific Cold War --
China -- to visit. The European Cold War ended when the Soviet
Union dissolved. The Pacific Cold War against China has been going
on since the first one ended. In this skirmish, China's president
Hu Jintao will visit the White House this week.
President Bush seems eager to avoid raising expectations for
this meeting. Continuing a broad dialogue with Hu is wise, but the
prospects for any substantial resolution of differences are remote.
Our enormous trade deficit with China aside, Hu Jintao's regime is
a partner with Russia in forestalling UN Security Council action
against Iran's nuclear weapons program and a major trading partner
with every nation on our list of state sponsors of terrorism. While
Vladimir Putin toils diligently to reestablish authoritarianism in
Russia, Hu's China is a totalitarian state that is pursuing a
military buildup at a pace last achieved by 1930s Germany.
Every year Parade Magazine lists its The World's Ten
Worst Dictators. Ranked last year at #4, Hu Jintao's 2006 rating
has dropped to #6. Parade summarizes:
Although some Chinese have taken advantage of economic
liberalization to become rich, up to 150 million Chinese live on $1
a day or less in this nation with no minimum wage. Between 250,000
and 300,000 political dissidents are held in
"reeducation-through-labor" camps without trial. Less than 5% of
criminal trials include witnesses, and the conviction rate is
99.7%. There are no privately owned TV or radio stations. The
government opens and censors mail and monitors phone calls, faxes,
e-mails and text messages. In preparation for the 2008 Olympics, at
least 400,000 residents of Beijing have been forcibly evicted from
their homes.
Hu Jintao is a party apparatchik who came to prominence in the
aftermath of the Tiananmen Square massacre of June 1989. Although
he apparently wasn't a party to the decision to shoot the
pro-democracy demonstrators, his consulship of Tibet saw the same
brutal repressions at about the same time. Hu's regime is convinced
that democracy is not an irresistible force but that it can -- and
will -- be defeated. Since coming to power in 2002, Hu has sought
to use China's economic boom to fuel its military buildup which, in
turn, is concealed by false budget numbers and rhetoric of
"peaceful rise" to superpower status. The 2005 Defense Department
report, "The Military Power of the People's Republic of China,"
reminded the world of the "24-Character Strategy" of China,
established by Hu's political mentor, Deng Xiaoping. Its two-dozen
Chinese characters translate as, "Observe calmly; secure our
position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide
our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim
leadership." Hu remains dedicated to the 24-Character Strategy and
it is in pursuit of it that Hu visits America.
Hu comes to reinforce China's status as America's peer in
economic, diplomatic and -- almost -- in military terms. Hu wants
to reassure America that China's intentions are peaceful, and to
place himself in control of the international debate on Iran.
President Bush will talk about some compromise on China's
overvalued currency, reducing our trade deficit with China, and
seek some leverage in the Iran debate. But China will not budge and
because of that, there are more important goals for the president
in this meeting. Mr. Bush is in a stronger position to assert them
than may appear because China's neighbors are watching every
Sino-American interaction.
China seeks regional dominance to provide a safe base for
further expansion. Its military buildup is aimed, in the short
term, at providing unquestioned superiority on its periphery --
nations such as Japan and South Korea -- and asserting dominance
over Taiwan. Our defense treaty with Japan places us squarely
between the two nations, and the President's statements that we
will defend querulous Taiwan have kept China at bay. Though the
White House rejects the term, our quiet strategy against China is,
and must continue to be, containment. Over the past two years, we
have made gains among the nations on China's periphery due almost
entirely to the quiet diplomatic efforts of the Defense Department
and its Assistant Secretary for International Affairs, Peter
Rodman.
India, the most powerful nation on China's borders, was
alienated from America during the Clinton years over sanctions
against its nuclear weapons program. Our new relationship with
India is a real breakthrough. And China's other neighbors, fearing
its military buildup, have come to us seeking reassurance of
goodwill, and more. These nations fear being drawn into a
Sino-American war and, like the Europeans, want us to protect them
but do so in a way that costs them nothing in their relations with
China. President Bush can, without using the "containment" term he
finds objectionable, make it clear to Hu that we will continue to
grow our ties to the peripheral nations and thus contain China's
ambitions.
Hu will also be seeking the means of accelerating China's
military buildup. Last year, through extraordinary showings of
strength from the White House and Congress, the President managed
to buy a year on the question of the European arms embargo against
China. It was only when senators such as the usually diplomatic
Richard Lugar threatened congressional action against Europe if it
lifted the embargo that the EUnuchs backed down. The EUnuchs will
take it up again this year, and Hu will be looking for a
politically weakened Bush to be more compliant. The President
should manufacture an opportunity to reaffirm his undiluted
opposition to any lifting of the embargo. The fact that the embargo
is leaky, he might say offhand, is no reason to lift it.
There is no chance whatever that China will change its position
on Iran, and, media speculation to the contrary, any failure of the
President to gain its support on Iran will be no defeat. China is
not our ally, and not -- at least yet -- our military peer. It is
an adversary in the Pacific Cold War.
TAS contributing editor Jed Babbin is the author
of Inside the Asylum: Why the UN and Old Europe Are
Worse Than You Think (Regnery, 2004) and the forthcoming book
(with Edward Timperlake) Showdown: Why China Wants War with the United
States (Regnery, May 2006).
topics:
Education, Trade, Vladimir Putin, Books, Military, Iran, Russia, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Oil
