Today is Election Day in Canada, and all the polls show that
change is on the way. The Liberal Party’s 12-year reign is finally
coming to an end. The Conservatives, led by Stephen Harper, look
poised to form the next government.
It’s possible, though not likely, that the Conservatives will
win an outright majority in Parliament. But even if they don’t, and
need to form a coalition government, they will have more of a
chance to move an agenda than one would expect. As a political
consultant explained to me in Washington a few months ago before
heading north to work for the Conservatives, the leaders of the
Tories’ prospective coalition partner, the separatist Bloc
Quebecois, are willing to give Harper several years of rule (but
expect lots of Tory reforms to exempt Quebec). The Conservative
victory will be a real one, and not just for Harper and his party
but for Canada, for North America, and for the world.
For Canada, it will mean the end of rule by crooks. In April, I
covered the explosive revelations, leaked to an
American blog, in the testimony of ad agency president Jean Brault.
The New York Times covered the story the next day, and the
publishing ban was lifted on most of Brault’s testimony by the
afternoon. Just when it looked like the Grits (as the Liberals are
nicknamed) would weather the story — they were comfortably ahead
in the polls in November — Canada’s financial regulators opened a
criminal investigation of Ralph Goodale, the sitting Minister of
Finance.
Suspicions were raised by a flurry of trading in dividend-paying
stocks shortly before Goodale announced a cut in dividend taxation.
While it’s not at all clear that Goodale did anything wrong, the
insider trading allegations reminded voters of the ruling party’s
general corruption; the polls quickly turned against the Liberals.
Even the usually left-leaning Toronto Globe & Mail has
endorsed the Conservatives, as has the leading French-language
paper La Presse.
For North America, it will mean a much friendlier partnership
between the U.S. and Canada. Prime Minister Paul Martin has hitched
his political wagon to shameless Yankee-bashing this campaign,
accusing Harper of being a Washington puppet and vowing to “make
sure that Canada speaks with an independent voice now, tomorrow,
and always.” In a country that defines itself largely by its
differences from the U.S., it seemed like a sure-fire strategy. But
as David Sax points out (subscription required) in the New
Republic, Canadian anti-Americanism may be broad — a 2003 SES
Canada Research poll showed only 13% of Canadians wanting Canada to
be more like the U.S.; a 2004 Ipsos-Reid poll found that 82%
believe that President Bush is not a friend of Canada — but it
isn’t deep. An SES/Buffalo University poll in 2005 showed that a
majority of Canadians want closer relations with the U.S. on
security, antiterrorism, and energy policy. Canadians don’t want to
be Americans, but they do want to be American allies. The Grits
have made this tough over the years, with periodic anti-Bush and
anti-American outbursts from the back and front benches.
The Tories won’t have that problem. Though Harper has made pains
to distance himself from the perception of excessive deference to
Washington, even writing to the Washington Times to
dispute an op-ed characterizing him as “Mr. Bush’s new best friend
internationally,” the fact is that he’ll be the most pro-American
Canadian Prime Minister in a long time. He may not send Canadian
troops to Iraq, but he has praised the U.S. for pursuing democracy
there and would stand with the U.S. (and Israel) in international
disputes where his predecessors would stand against us. In a
dangerous world, the good guys are about to gain another strong
leader. And that’s bad news for the bad guys.
