Rep. Tom DeLay is if nothing else a realist,
and over the past week or so, he began to sense that his support
inside the Republican caucus was cratering, particularly as allies
of his began to be importuned by the MSM in the wake of the
Jack Abramoff plea deal.
House Democratic Campaign Committee chairman Rahm
Emanuel and his staff had presented a number of
Congressional reporters whom they favored and used for leaks with a
list of 20 to 30 GOP members names to pester over the Abramoff and
DeLay stories. “It was all about hit them and their consciences,”
says a DCCC staffer. “We didn’t have to do much heavy lifting on
this one. The media did it for us once we laid down the breadcrumbs
to show them the way.”
As the media worked away on the appearance of diminishing
support for DeLay, creating the impression that his ouster was
inevitable, DeLay was hearing from some of his stauncher supporters
that he had at least to consider his options before returning full
time to Washington at the end of the month.
DeLay and his advisers had been insisting that they expected a
resolution to his legal troubles in Texas no later than March, and
that the results would be a clear and definitive win for him. But
DeLay understood that Abramoff’s plea deal presented another layer
of potential legal jeopardy that would surely linger well into
election season.
“Tom DeLay is not the kind of man who lives in a cocoon and
ignores reality,” says an ally in the House. “That is what made him
such a good tactician. It shouldn’t surprise people that he saw the
dynamics at play and made the right decision.”
The fact that the White House was exerting some pressure on him
didn’t seem to matter. Before the Christmas recess, he rebuffed
meetings with senior White House advisers and declined a meeting in
Texas earlier this month with outside White House adviser
Ed Gillespie. DeLay was said by some to be angry
that other outside Bush operatives had been asking influential
Republican donors in Texas with ties to both Bush and DeLay to
place calls to DeLay operatives and supporters about his having him
do what was right for the party both in the state and
nationally.
THINGS SEEM TO BE SHIFTING by the hour, but this is where things
stood as of late last night:
Republican Whip and Acting House Majority Leader Roy
Blunt (Mo.) and Rep. John Boehner (Ohio)
both activated what amounted to whip operations on Friday night. We
were hearing from our House sources that each had set up five to
seven-member teams that were making calls on their candidates’
behalf over the weekend.
For Blunt, the team includes: Reps. Marsha
Blackburn (Tenn.), Dave Camp (Mich.),
Ander Crenshaw (Fla.), Bob
Goodlatte (Vir.), Mark Kirk (Ill.), and
Sue Myrick (N.C.). With the exception of the
moderate Kirk, each is conservative and is considered to be part of
the “second tier” of Republicans we referred
to late last week: senior, respected, with seats on the most
influential and desirable committees.
Of note are Blackburn and Kirk. Blackburn was viewed as an ally
of potential House leader candidate Rep. Mike
Pence (Ind.), given their high profile battle with House
leadership over appropriations cuts. Kirk was one of the 25 or so
members of the caucus who let it be known that he would sign on to
a formal request to leadership for a new election.
Boehner’s team has a more moderate cast, perhaps to reach out
more readily to those caucus members who aren’t close to Blunt.
Reps. Melissa Hart (Penn.), John
Kline (Minn.), Thad McCotter (Mich.),
Devin Nunes (Calif.), Jim Saxton
(N.J), Mike Simpson (Idaho), and Pat
Tiberi (Ohio). Hart and Saxton especially are viewed as
more moderate than other members of Boehner’s team. Kline was
another of the caucus members willing to sign on to an election
petition.
Sources close to both Kline and Kirk say that neither man was
part of the initial group of two or three members who organized the
petition drive, and that neither had discussed his decision with
the men they are now supporting. But what would you expect them to
say?
Rep. Mike Rogers, whom we identified
as a dark horse candidate for leaders, seemingly took his name out
of the running on Sunday morning by announcing that if the Whip
position were to open up (due to Blunt’s election as leader), he
would seek it. Rep. Mike Pence has expressed
similar interest in the Whip position.
On Sunday morning, it appeared that Blunt and Boehner had
cleared the field of competitors. There is talk that Rep.
Jerry Lewis (Calif.) is looking to throw his hat
in the ring. He was making a series of phone calls on Saturday
night and Sunday morning. It was not clear where he appeared to be
leaning. Some of Lewis’s more influential donors in California were
telling friends on Sunday morning that Lewis had decided not to
seek the position, though Lewis staffers and outside advisers said
it was too early to rule him out completely.
GIVEN THAT THE ELECTION is about three weeks away, things should
remain in flux. There is plenty of time for damaging leaks: look
almost immediately for the Washington Post and the
New York Times to revisit Blunt’s ill-fated
decision to take up with a tobacco lobbyist, as well as his
connections to DeLay. On Boehner’s side, there is his proclivity to
attend fundraisers on golf courses in between forays along the “K
Street Corridor,” as well as what was revealed in the 1996 cell
phone conversation between Boehner and then-House Speaker
Newt Gingrich, infamously and illegally taped by
Democratic activists, and its subsequent leaking to the press by
operatives of Rep. Jim McDermott.
“Both men are going to come under pretty serious attack,” says a
senior House Republican staffer. “But both of these guys have made
it clear for a pretty long time that they wanted this job. I’m sure
they are ready.” House Speaker Dennis Hastert has
announced that the election will be held the week after January
31.
What is certain is that Tom DeLay remains one of the most
influential and powerful members of Congress inside his caucus, and
his relationship with both frontrunners for his post have been
rocky. Neither Boehner nor Blunt is now on particularly good terms
with DeLay, and there is an expectation that the man who proudly
accepted the nickname of “The Hammer” still has a few more
Machiavellian maneuvers to play out over the next couple of
months.
