BELFAST, Northern Ireland — Thirty-seven years of sectarian
violence here — called “The Troubles” — are expected soon to be
declared over. Two reports due early in 2006 are said to draw that
conclusion.
One, by an international commission headed by a Canadian
general, will report that the “decommissioning” of the weapons of
the Irish Republican Army is proceeding satisfactorily. The other,
by an international monitoring group, is expected to conclude that
there is no longer an active threat of terrorism in Northern
Ireland.
This could — but may not — break the two-year-old political
stalemate that has kept the Northern Ireland Assembly (parliament)
from sitting. The previous government collapsed when an uneasy
coalition of the moderate Ulster Unionist Party and Sinn Fein, the
IRA’s political wing, failed. In the ensuing election, the Rev. Ian
Paisley’s more strident Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn
Fein were the winners. Neither was willing to come to terms with
the other in order to form a new government. To fill the void, the
British Foreign Office appointed a team of government ministers to
manage the day-to-day affairs of Northern Ireland.
The six counties that make up Northern Ireland are peaceful
today, although sectarian tensions have not gone away. For example,
most of the public schools are, in fact, segregated. Protestant
marching groups still stage provocative marches in Catholic
neighborhoods and there are still taunting and demanding slogans on
buildings and train trestles (“Welcome to Loyalist Larne,” “Free
Sean Kelly NOW!”). Nevertheless, one gets a strong sense that the
people are exhausted from the years of strife and want nothing more
than to get on with their lives.
The Irish north was once stronger economically than the south,
but that is no longer the case. Today it lacks a strong industrial
base. The huge cranes of the shipyard where the Titanic
and many other large vessels were built are quiet. Shipbuilding has
gone elsewhere, mostly to South Korea. The famous Irish linen
industry — along with flax-growing — is largely a memory. The
influx of high-tech businesses to the Irish Republic has not
extended to Northern Ireland.
It would not be easy for Sinn Fein and the DUP to govern
jointly. The former’s objective remains unification with the
Republic; the latter’s is to remain part of the United Kingdom. The
third party to the Northern Ireland equation, the British
government, would no doubt be happy to be freed altogether from its
burden, a multi-billion-dollar annual subsidy pumped into Northern
Ireland.
Some observers think Sinn Fein and the DUP could work out a
short-term arrangement. After all, in the Good Friday Agreement of
1998, both sides agreed that any structural change in Northern
Ireland could only be made by a vote of the people. Sinn Fein wants
to build electoral strength in the Republic, and it would suit its
long-term interests to do the same in the north, hoping to have
parallel cabinet ministers in both halves of Ireland. As for the
DUP, its colorful leader, Paisley, is nearing 80 years of age and,
it is said, would like to have as his legacy the position of First
Minister in a new Northern Ireland Assembly.
For the long run, one former senior member of the government
says that unification with the south is “inevitable, for economic
reasons, if no other.” He cited the logic in having a joint
electricity grid, joint tourism promotion, and common regulatory
rules and practices as examples of benefits that would accrue to
both. Meanwhile, it appears that more time must pass while the
white hot passions of one generation are succeeded by the less
ardent one of another.
