Citizens and voters all over America bemoan how candidates and
campaigns seem to start earlier each election cycle. In Alabama,
for example, four candidates for Governor — two Republicans and
two Democrats — are already jockeying for the June 2006 primary
election.
Of the two parties, the Democrats have now taken center stage.
The candidates for Governor in the Democratic primary include Don
Siegelman, the former Governor, and Lucy Baxley, the current
Lieutenant Governor.
Siegelman has high name identification but his negatives are
astronomic. In late October, he was indicted under RICO for
allegedly taking more than $1 million in bribes for doing special
favors for Alabama companies that sought his help as Governor. He
may have pocketed some of this money. Former HealthSouth CEO
Richard Scrushy, also newly indicted, is alleged to have paid
$500,000 to Siegelman for an appointment to the Certificate of Need
Board, which makes decisions about which types of expensive medical
equipment can be installed at which clinics and hospitals. A
lobbyist who offered Siegelman gifts and a former Siegelman
department director who helped do favors helped the investigation.
If convicted of a felony, Siegelman could spend 20 years in
prison.
Siegelman responded the charges were false and, trying to tap
into Democratic hate for national Republicans and the Bush
Administration, said the indictments were part of a Republican plan
to smear him. Baxley, chief beneficiary of the Siegelman
indictment, clucked about how it was a sad day for Alabamans, who
deserve honesty in government.
Well known among the party faithful, Baxley has little statewide
name identification yet and is countering it with distribution of
“I Love Lucy” buttons and stickers.
The Siegelman indictments pushed the Republican soap opera off
the front pages. Expelled Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy
Moore is challenging incumbent Governor Bob Riley.
Moore was expelled from the Supreme Court by an Alabama judicial
ethics panel for flouting the law when his insistence a two-ton
granite monument to the Ten Commandments shouldn’t be removed from
state property also defied a federal judge’s ruling the monument
was an unconstitutional endorsement of religion. In Alabama,
symbols mean more than substance. This intransigence earned Moore
support and plaudits from fundamentalist Christians.
As incumbent, Riley starts with high name identification.
Unfortunately for him, he also has high negatives among likely
Republican primary voters due to his 2003 plan to reform Alabama’s
tax code. Voters overwhelmingly rejected the $1.3 billion ballot
proposal, which was backed by an odd coalition of business groups,
teachers, and state Democrats, the last two of which are not
usually Republican primary voters.
The gubernatorial announcements of both men were ironic as they
reached out to attract supporters of the other. As if to allay
fears he would be a one-issue fringe candidate, Moore stressed
financial responsibility and returning government to the people.
Riley spoke about his spiritual walk and said his aggressive
government reform agenda was already making government accountable
to the people. Some pundits suggest Riley and Moore will try to
out-Jesus one another.
The Mobile Register-University of South Alabama poll is
Alabama’s most respected. However, it hasn’t focused on the party
primaries since January, before any candidates had even announced.
Instead, the poll has focused on the horse race for Governor,
polling registered voters. In a poll released in the middle of
October, Riley led Siegelman 46 percent to 31 percent, and Baxley
44 percent to 33 percent. Baxley led Moore 44 percent to 37
percent. Siegelman and Moore finished in a tie, with 40 percent
each. That was a few weeks before the Siegelman indictment.
Why have the candidates started so early? One reason is money.
An indicted Siegelman will now have difficulty raising money. If
Baxley raises enough, she will drive Siegelman out of the race and
be able to purchase name identification and position herself.
However, it is still early enough for a third candidate with
personal wealth to step in.
A former Congressman and incumbent Governor, Riley has shown
remarkable fundraising acumen. His ability to raise money, however,
is unlikely to drive Moore from the race.
Money is less of a factor to Moore and true believers who help
him. To underestimate the ability of Moore to get sympathetic
voters regardless of party to turn out for him in the primary
should not be underestimated, especially if pastors and Christian
Coalition voter guides urge congregants to support Moore. Reported
polls will never capture this intangible factor.
