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Armey hopes battles for fundamental Social Security and tax reform, which suddenly appear politically winnable, are taken up first. Linda Killian, author of The Freshmen: What Happened to the Republican Revolution?, a fascinating chronicle of the 1994 Republican House takeover, considers the idea of a new Republican revolution overblown.

"I don't see the same sort of revolutionary fervor in the Republican Party about ending deficits as I did in 1994," she said. "Back then it was as if conservatives were possessed. They were on a mission to balance the budget and reduce the size of government. They'd go to war with Republican leadership just as soon as anyone else if the leadership wasn't acting conservative enough. They were so serious they made Bill Clinton serious about it. So far today's Republicans have not been willing to press Bush in the same way."

Killian said that even the 1994 "revolution" didn't translate into long-term fiscal conservative votes.

"Even the '94 guys who are still around have lost their edge," she said. "The '94 Republicans, statistically, voted in favor of the prescription drug bill, the biggest entitlement since the 1960s, at the same rate as any other group. The realities of being in Congress, of trying to move up and get re-elected, have all sunk in, and many of those who have stuck around have obviously decided to not rock the boat."

There is growing evidence, however, suggesting that the party had better rock the boat before Republicans fall out of it. "An increasingly large portion of the conservative base is saying there's not a dime's worth of difference between the parties, and that only hurts Republicans, never Democrats, come Election Day," Dick Armey said.

Last March the Tarrance Group found Democrats holding a five-point lead over Republicans when it asked which party would keep down federal spending. A subsequent poll in August showed those numbers tighten into a dead heat, but clearly Republicans' long-held reputation as the party of fiscal discipline is fast eroding, especially now that they control so much of the government.

"Congress cannot sustain a Republican majority without an enthusiastic base," Pence said. "If we do not work towards the solutions we have been promising, it will kill the midterm election for us. Those are base elections, and the majority of our base is people who voted for us to see fiscal discipline in D.C. We abandon those folks at our own peril."

THE ELEPHANT IN THE LIVING ROOM is President Bush. Whatever House conservatives plan for the budget, it is unlikely to get off the ground without White House backing. This means getting George W. Bush to locate the veto pen he didn't pick up a single time during his first term.

"There is a broad coalition for fiscal discipline in Congress made up of moderate and conservative Republicans alike, alongside blue dog Democrats," Ryan said. "But if the congressional leadership and the White House fail to step up and back us, the Appropriations Committee can defeat any reform legislation they choose to, because they hold the key to the money for people's districts."

Early signs are not promising. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, for example, threatened to derail the entire omnibus spending bill last November by refusing to call it up for a vote if NASA did not receive the full $16 billion the agency wanted to send a man to Mars, among other projects. Even a trimming of $300 million during these times of fiscal crisis was deemed unacceptable by DeLay.

The White House's willingness to compromise at the first sign of controversy could likewise endanger conservative goals.

"If the White House starts in the middle of the aisle and tries to work to the right, the entire reform agenda will be put in peril," Pence said. "We've seen this happen many times these last four years, where the White House signals they'll take any bill they can get. That doesn't give conservatives a very strong hand at the bargaining table. If the White House starts in the middle and moves right, it will taint both the policy and politics of what we are able to accomplish."

The general consensus in both the liberal and conservative press is that politics will overtake Congress in approximately 13 months. Any serious initiatives to reform the tax code, entitlements, Social Security, or budget practices in any meaningful way must begin before the sniping of the 2006 midterms begins.

"If we live up to our ideals, we'll prosper," Pence said. "If we fail, we run the risk of demoralizing millions of our most ardent supporters. It's like Yosemite Sam always used to say, 'Times a wasting.'"

Shawn Macomber is a reporter for The American Spectator. This article appeared in the February issue of The American Spectator. To subscribe, please click here.

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